As per Bloomberg: IMF says Greece will miss [14] bailout target
The International Monetary Fund published a report predicting that Greece's 2014 budget surplus will fall 0.4 percentage points short of the 1.5 percent gross domestic product mark required by the terms of the country's international bailout. Greece was previously thought to be on track to meet the surplus target, but the forecasts were overoptimistic.
Get the hell outta here! Optimistic! Really? From the IMF???!!! As I channel my post from 2010, aptly titled "Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse! [15]"
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Notice how dramatically off the market the IMF has been, skewered HEAVILY to the optimistic side. Now, notice how aggressively the IMF has downwardly revsied their forecasts to still end up widlly optimistic. [17]image018.pngimage018.pngimage018.png
Ever since the beginning of this crisis, IMF estimates of government balance have been just as bad...
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... The EU/EC has proven to be no better, and if anything is arguably worse!... If the IMF was wrong, what in the world does that make the EC/EU?
The EC forecasts have been just as bad, if not much, much worse in nearly all of the forecasting scenarios we presented. Hey, if you think tha's bad, try taking a look at what the govenment of Greece has done with these fairy tale forecasts, as excerpted from the blog post "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! [19]...
Alas, I digress. Back to the Bloomberg/IMF snippet...
Tax collection is sagging; Greece is still in recession; and privatization is proceeding much slower than planned.
But this was quite evident last year as Greece failed to achieve Primary Balance and was slipping ever so farther away from that rather lofty (at least to most of continental Europe on a real, applied basis) goal. Don't say you didn't know, because I told you so, and on a European broadcaster as well...
And back to our snippet of the day...
The Greek finance ministry immediately responded to the new IMF projection, saying the government would do whatever was necessary to achieve a surplus of 1.5 percent GDP: cut spending, step up tax collection or both.
Oh yeah, that will work just fine. Cut off your legs to reduce your weight and drag so you can run faster. Does anyone in these financial ministries know anything about FiNANCE???!!!
Further cuts, however, may be politically untenable: The country is already in turmoil over the government's austerity measures. Meanwhile, failure to reach fiscal targets may delay further aid from both the IMF and the euro area. A new Greek crisis is a distinct possibility for next year.
U [15]hhh. PSSST!!! But, we haven't finsighed the "OLD Greek crisis" yet, you know the one I warned you about in 2010! From my 2010 article for subscribers, Greek Debt Restructuring Analysis - Professional [20], I excerpt as follows:
In 2012, Der Speigel ran an article stating what I told my subscribers for the two years previous - Greece was in a hole that it simply couldn't crawl out of. From the piece aptly titled "Greece Fulfills Its BoomBustBlog Derived Destiny - Shows This Time Really Isn't All That Different After All!!!":
I believe I was one of the very few to declare Greece a foregone default in February 2010 (I Think It’s Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall [21] and then with with more specificity a month later As I Explicitly Forewarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic! [22]).
By the 2nd quarter of 2010 I was one of the very few to clearly and articulately detail exactly how Greece would default with specific structures in play- What is the Most Likely Scenario in the Greek Debt Fiasco? Restructuring Via Extension of Maturity Dates [23]. Due to a few institutions who were skeptical, I attempted to make it a bit more real - A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina [24].
Well, Greece defaulted according to plan, despite all of the "people in the know" saying otherwise -Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! [19] - from government officials tothe EC and IMF - Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse! [15] Even after the default, I made clear that this wasn't over for Greece, for the default actually left Greece worse off fundamentally, not better. Go wonder... I know I did, reference the warning from 5 months ago [25]:
This will be exacerbated by a re-default of the Greek debt that was designed to bail out the defaulted Greek debt. Why will this happen? Greece has severe, rigid structural
problems that simply cannot (and will not) be solved by throwing indebted liquidity at it. As a matter of fact, the additional debt simply exacerbates the problem - significantly! This was detailed in the post Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth! [26]
... Subscribers [27] can download my full thoughts on Greece's sustainability post bailout here - debt restructuring_maturity extension blog - March 2012 [28]. Professional and institutional subscribers should feel free to email me [29] in order to receive a copy of the Greek restructuring model used to create these charts and come to these conclusions.
Despite extensive, self-defeating, harsh and punitive austerity measures that have combined with a lack of true economic stimulus, Greece has (to date) failed to achieve Primary Balance. For the non-economists in the audience, primary balance is the elimination of a primary deficit, yet the absence of a primary surplus, ex. the midpoint between deficit and surplus before taking into consideration interest payments.
Alas, I digress. Back to the der Spegiel article...
According to a preliminary troika report, the additional shortfalls are the result of lower than expected tax revenues due to the country's ongoing recession as well as a
privatization program which has not lived up to expectations. The troika plans to calculate the exact size of the shortfall when it returns to Athens at the beginning of next month.
I'm sorry, but I simply cannot resist. This article was posted on BoomBustBlog in July of 2011 - Greek Asset Sales Fall Short, As We Virtually Guaranteed They Would In Spring 2010 [30].
In it I reviewed how the BoomBustBlog team detailed EXACTLY how bullshit the privatization plan was, in explicit detail - in the spring of 2010. THAT WAS MORE THAN TWO AND A HALF YEARS AGO, PEOPLE!!!
If a blog can have this much foresight, with this much specificity, than what does one make of this so-called troika??? As excerpted:
This is a tragic Greek comedy. Professional/institutional subscribers should reference the 
Greece Public Finances Projections 2010-03-15 11:33:27 694.35 Kb in its entirety [31].
For those who chose not to subscribe, I am posting excerpts from pages 5 and 6 from said document, don't read this while eating or drinking for fear of spitting up your lunch!
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Any subscribers who would have went heavily bearish into these banks when I first commented on the would have done quite well:
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Okay, I digress - yet again... With such excessive bullshit, one does tend to get thrown off track. Back to the der Spiegel excerpts...
The news of the potentially greater financing needs [37] comes at a sensitive time for the country. Many in Europe, particularly in Germany, are losing their patience [38] and there has been increased talk of the country leaving the common currency zone. Over the weekend, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reiterated his skepticism of additional aid to Greece. "We can't put together yet another program," he said on Saturday, adding that it was irresponsible to "throw money into a bottomless pit."
Well, my friend, if you had that BoomBustBlog subscription [27], you would have known before you spent that first euro that Greece was a bottomless pit. Let me reiterated what I pasted up top... This situation will simply get worse, considerably worse. I demonstrated in the post The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That's Too Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media [26] that anyone who purchased the last set of bailout bonds from Greece will simply lose their money as well (that's right, just like those who purchased the previous set) since Greece is still running deep in structural problems and can't afford the interest nor the principal on its borrowing. It's really that simple. And guess what? Anyone who dips new money into Greece now will suffer the EXACT same fate!
As excerpted from Greece Sneezes, The Euro Dies of Pneumonia! Yeah, Sounds Bombastic, Yet True! [39]
Wait until a 2nd Greek default (virtually guaranteed [26] as we supplied user downloadable models to see for yourself, the same model used to forecast the 1st default) mirrors history. Of the 181 yrs as a sovereign nation after gaining independence, Greece been in default 58 of them. Don't believe me! Check your history, or just read more BoomBustBlog - Sophisticated Ignorance Or Just A Very, Very Short Term Memory? Foolish Talk of German Bailouts [40]Once Again [40]...
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Greece's default will hit an already bank NPA laden Spain quite hard: The Spain Pain Will Not Wane: Continuing the Contagion Saga [42] and ditto with Italy "As We Assured Clients Two Years Ago, Italy's Riding The Broken Promise Express To Restructuring [43]". Once Italy gets hit, the true bank runs will start as socialist France (the so-called half of the EU anchor) loses control of its banking system. Reference "As The French Bank Runs.... [44]":
Saturday, 23 July 2011 The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs! [45]: I detail how I see modern bank runs unfolding
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