In what feels like the first actionable macro data release in a while, the Empire Fed Manufacturing survey (yes "soft" data but it's all we have to play with for now [3]) missed expectations by the most in 5 months. Against consensus of 7.00, the 1.52 print is the lowest in 5 months and the 3rd miss in a row. Once again, the employment sub-index slumped - now at its lowest since July (dismissing that August spike that we now know was driven by the exuberant last-minute spending of government budgets [4]). Of course while the curent business conditions slid, expectations for six months from now held steady (even though shipments and new orders expectations slid a little). With business conditions now anchored around zero for 3 years, this "soft" data indicator is not exactly the driver of growth hopes that equities seem to believe in.
Not exactly the bright shining light of growth that equities appear to reflect...
[5]
Charts: Bloomberg