While "hard" data has been scarce in the US thanks to the shutdown, we recently noted that whet little we had recently indicated notable weakness [5] relative to the survey-based "soft" data. Goldman has, in the past, indicated how little forecasting power the soft survey data has in Europe [6] and yet still, day after day we are treated to the herd of mainstream media types proclaiming that Europe is recovering and that their fundamentals have turned a corner. The problem with that "story" is that is that is a lie. In fact, European macro data has been sliding since the start of September and has plunged recently to 3 month lows. Of course, the reality is that a record high for European stocks is all that matters to the fast-money charging momo players and betting against divergences from fundamentals is for dummies...
[7]
So please - please - do not try and pretend that the reason to buy European stocks is that fundamentals are improving - they are not! And Greece, well we already showed that they need a 3rd bailout [8], so don't start!