Moments ago hopes that the S&P would hit 1800 on an epic miss in the September retail sales were dashed after both the headline and ex-auto/gas numbers came largely in line. The total Seasonally Adjusted retail sales for September dipped modestly by 0.1%, on expectations of an unchanged print. Excluding autos the number was exactly in line with expectations at 0.4%, while ex autos and gas was also a very modest miss of 0.4% vs Exp. 0.5%. Still, hardly bad enough to send the S&P500 futures into the stratosphere. The biggest outliers by business category were motor vehicles which tumbled -2.2 in September, the biggest decline since October 2012 (did the US government suddenly stop making NINJA loans?), Miscellaneous stores and Clothing stores, down 1.2% and -0.5% respectively, while electronics and appliance stores rose 0.7% in September. In short: Americans may have no clothing as we enter the winter season, but at least they have the new iPad.
So while noted the number was hardly bad enough to send stocks surging, the ES-leading EURJPY pair seems to have found a third-wind bid in an attempt to expand the S&P500 multiple by at least another 0.1-0.2x today: could it be that algos just noticed that unadjusted retail sales tumbled by 9% from August to September.
Retail sales historic trend:
[2]
Charting the September retail sales broken down by category:
And by business:
Source: Census [3] [3]