Sometimes you just have to laugh... Chicago, it would seem, felt not just no bad impact from the government shutdown (that so many asset managers and CEOs have proclaimed as the reason for any slowdown - and the need to avoid a Taper) but it roared to its highest since March 2011. This blew expectations away by the most on record (8-sigma). New orders are at the highest level since October 2004. October’s advance in the Barometer was its biggest monthly increase in over 30 years and only the third time in the past decade the Barometer has risen for four consecutive months. US equities are not happy about this apparent 'taper-on' improvement (and have dropped 8 points on the release) - though it appears seasonals are playing a major part.
[3]
and in context - this is an 8 sigma beat:
MNI notes however that two reasons stand out for this surge:
- Half the gains stem from seasonal adjustments, and
- October is the time when pre-Chinese New Year orders hit
US equities are not happy at this "good" news...
Chart: Bloomberg