So much for the government shutdown - as one of the just released manufacturing ISM respondents so candidly put it, "The government shutdown has not had any impact on our business that I
can determine, nor has it impacted any supplier shipments." And speaking of the ISM itself, it naturally rejected everything that the Markit PMI noted, and printed at 56.4, beating expectations of a 55.0 print, the 5th beat in a row, and the highest print since April 2011. Sadly, it was not 66.4 or 76.4 to at least partially "confirm" the Chicago ISM surge. So while virtually all ISM components rose, with exports spiking by 5 points to 57.0, it was the employment index that dipped yet again, from 55.4 to 53.2, the lowest since June, but in the New Normal who needs jobs when one has Schrodinger diffusion indices to confuse everyone on a daily basis. Either way, while stocks did not like yesterday's exploding Chicago PMI and dipped on fears of a December taper, today's 2 years ISM high is one of those good news is good news instances, and ES soars as usual.
In chart format:
[7]
The report breakdown:
[8]
From the report:
The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI™ registered 56.4 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from September's reading of 56.2 percent. The PMI™ has increased progressively each month since June, with October's reading reflecting the highest PMI™ in 2013. The New Orders Index increased slightly in October by 0.1 percentage point to 60.6 percent, while the Production Index decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 60.8 percent. Both the New Orders and Production Indexes have registered above 60 percent for three consecutive months. The Employment Index registered 53.2 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to September's reading of 55.4 percent. The panel's comments are generally positive about the current business climate; however, there are mixed responses on whether the government shutdown and potential default have had any effect on October's results."
And the respondents:
- "New business is booming." (Textile Mills)
- "The government shutting down and threatening to go into a default position is causing all kinds of concerns in our markets." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "The government shutdown has not had any impact on our business that I can determine, nor has it impacted any supplier shipments." (Chemical Products)
- "Government spending continues to be slow in defense and military. The government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis did not affect business." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Telecom market — wireless and VOIP — appear to be spiking. We are very busy; busier than we have ever been." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Seasonal demand has not decreased at the typical pace. Market showing resiliency in the residential market." (Primary Metals)
- "Business continues to improve every month for the past nine months." (Furniture & Related Products)
- "Big Box Store discounting providing increased sales bump short term." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Our customers continue to be cautious and are closely managing their purchases. Business continues to be flat to slightly down." (Machinery)
- "Outlook on general appliance market continues in a positive direction. Uncertainty, however, looms with unclear government direction pending." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)