[15]
Inflation vs deflation vs stagflation
The primary business of banks is lending.
- In a recession, not many people and businesses borrow, hence lending tends to be a poor business.
- In order to make money off of lending assets you need a reasonable return.
- When ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is applied, said reasonable return does not exist unless banks dramatically mark up the cost of the loan which brings up back to point one.
In the states I made this point when most analysts insisted that ZIRP was good for the banks, to wit...
Now remember, I've been very bearish on the EU and thier banks and sovereign debt in particular, since Q! 2010 - way before most - reference Pan-European sovereign debt crisis [16]. Yesterday morning if you were to Google the term EU recovery, you would see something like this in return...
- Autumn forecast 2013 - EU economy: Gradual recovery, external risks [17] 2 days ago - Autumn forecast 2013 - EU economy: Gradual recovery, external risks.
- Europe Is Heading Toward Recovery, but Slowly - WSJ.com [18]
- BBC News - CBI says staying in EU 'overwhelmingly' best for business [19]
- European Economy Recovering Slowly - YouTube [20]
- IB Times: Europe's Economy Recovering: Three Positive Signs, Including ... [21]
- McKinsey - European growth and renewal: The path from crisis to recovery ... [22] Europe has very significant, and sometimes underappreciated, strengths on which to build a sustained recovery. As the world's largest integrated economy,
- LA Times - Europe shows signs of economic recovery amid growth in Eurozone ... [23]
Well, somebody better tell Draghi, as per Bloomberg: ECB Cuts Key Rate to Record Low to Fight Deflation Threat [24]
The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low after a drop in inflation to the slowest pace in four years threatened its mission to keep prices stable.
Policy makers meeting in Frankfurt today reduced the main refinancing rate by a quarter point to 0.25 percent. The decision was predicted by three of 70 economists in a Bloomberg News survey [25]. The ECB kept its deposit rate at zero and trimmed the marginal lending rate to 0.75 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi [26] will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
The ECB now has just one more quarter-point cut left before reaching zero, increasing the likelihood of unconventional tools such as quantitative easing or a negative deposit rate if prices slow further or the economic recovery stalls. Euro-area inflation is less than half the ECB’s target and unemployment is at the highest level since the currency bloc was formed in 1999.
“There comes a point where inflation is so weak, and coming in weaker than anticipated, that the case for loosening policy becomes too hard to resist,” said Richard Barwell [27], senior European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, who predicted the cut. “Bad unemployment numbers only make the case stronger.”
Does it seem like I've predicted the future hear once again as that Financial Nostradamus Dude???
Quantitative Easing
A Fed-style quantitative easing program has repeatedly been ruled out by ECB policy makers. The central bank is barred by European Union treaties from financing state debt, making large-scale purchases of government bonds open to a legal challenge.
While Draghi has floated the prospect of a negative deposit rate, the rate for commercial lenders who park excess cash at the central bank, policy makers have said that its effects can’t be adequately predicted. A negative deposit rate could hurt banks’ profitability by lowering money-market rates, potentially hampering credit supply to companies and households and reducing banks’ incentive to lend to other financial institutions.
“If inflation stays low, as seems likely, and the threat of inflation expectations becoming unanchored to the downside increases significantly, then all the tools in the box can come into play,” said Ken Wattret [28], chief euro-area economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “But knowing the way the ECB operates and how long it has taken to try and get support for a refi rate cut, doing the big stuff could take some time.”
Well, I believe QE has already been implemented by the ECB accepting trash sovereign debt as marketable collateral, but that's a discussion for another day. Just listen to the Financial Nostradamus dude when he warns what happens when a larger, admitted QE program is instituted. For one, you'd probably eliminate that inflation problem... replacing it with...