David Einhorn begins his discussion on the market warning that "certain aspects of the market are very much in bubble," with investors "dismissing valuation metrics." "The market is confused," between useful products and real profit streams, he suggests for a number of headline-grabbing higly speculative names. More broadly, Einhorn believes real damage has been done by Fed policy, and is "not convinced if or when they will ever taper." Crucially, he adds, we may see another rollover/recession and "the Fed will pour more fuel on the fire." The cognitive bias he exposes is that most people believe the Fed policy is supporting the economy (in some way), whereas (as we noted here [4]) there are real costs and as Einhorn notes "Fed policy is a headwind to the economy," as he quantifies the hundreds of billions in lost interest income relative to wealth gains. Owning gold makes sense, he adds, "in case they lose control."
"I’m not convinced when — or if they’ll ever taper,” he said. “I don’t know. We may go into the next crisis, the next depression/recession rollover, and the next move might be to pour more fuel on the fire. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.”
Einhorn's broad market thoughts begin at 5:30,
And his gold comments begin at 10:30,