For the 5th month in a row, pending home sales missed expectations (though a silver lining is a positive print MoM - breaking a 5-month streak). Year-over-year, home sales collapsed at 4% - its worst drop since April 2011, and that even after prior data was revised lower. Still, despite this ongoing plunge, there is always hope - as engendered by NAR's chief economist [2] who states (somewhat unconfidently), "we may have reached a cyclical low." Cylical low indeed - just don't look at the chart.
Sure doesn't look like a cyclical low...
[3]
as data misses for the 5th month in a row...
[4]
There is always hope... (via NAR) [2]
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market is flattening. “We may have reached a cyclical low because the positive fundamentals of job creation and household formation are likely to foster a fairly stable level of contract activity in 2014,” he said. “Although the final months of 2013 are finishing on a soft note, the year as a whole will end with the best sales total in seven years.”
...
Total existing-home sales this year are expected to reach 5.1 million, a gain of almost 10 percent over 2012, but should stay at that level in 2014, and then rise to 5.3 million in 2015. The national median existing-home price for all of this year will be close to $197,300, up nearly 12 percent from 2012, but is projected to rise at a more moderate pace of 5 to 5.5 percent in 2014, and grow another 4 percent in 2015.