Gold has been in a bear market for some two years now. As a result of this, many investors believe that the precious metal is no longer a viable investment.
No investment ever goes straight up or straight down. During the last bull market in gold, the precious metal rose 2,329% from a low of $35 in 1970 to a high of $850 in 1980. However, during that time, there was a period of 18 months in which gold fell nearly 50% (see the chart below)
As you can see, from mid-1971 to December 1974, gold rose 471%. It then fell 50%, from December ’74 to August ’76. After that, it began its next leg up, exploding 750% higher from August ’76 to January 1980.
With that in mind, I believe the next leg up in Gold could very well be the BIG one. Indeed, based on the US Federal Reserve’s money printing alone Gold should be at $1800 per ounce today.
Moreover, at $1,800, Gold is Still Nowhere Near Its All-Time High
Now, a lot of commentators have noted that gold is already trading above its 1980 high ($850 an ounce). What they fail to note is that thanks to inflation, $1 in the ‘70s is worth a LOT MORE than a $1 today.
|
$1 in… |
Is Worth Today |
|
1970 |
$5.49 |
|
1980 |
$2.58 |
For gold to hit a new all time high adjusted for inflation, it would have to clear at least $2,193 per ounce. If you go by 1970 dollars (when gold started its last bull market) it’d have to hit $4,666 per ounce.
Bottomline: gold is nowhere near a peak adjusted for inflation. And when the next leg up begins, we could see a tremendous move.
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Best Regards
Graham Summers