Gold fell $2.36 to $1332.74 in late Asian trade before it rallied back to $1341.79 by early afternoon in New York, but it then fell back off into the close and ended with a gain of just 0.17%. Silver climbed to $21.314 in London, but it then fell back off in late trade and ended with a loss of 0.09%.
Gold traded below its highest level in more than four months as tension between Ukraine and Russia eased leading to traders taking profits on gold.
Palladium, 1994 to March 2014 - (Bloomberg)
Palladium climbed for a fifth day and jumped to an 11 month high. Palladium for June delivery rose 0.7% to $769/oz. Palladium has gained 5.5% during the last five days of the crisis and is up 7.9% year to date. There are real concerns that that any economic sanctions against Russia could disrupt exports of the precious metal from the world‘s largest producer and exacerbate an already tight supply situation.
The risk of supply disruptions from Russia come at a time when the market was already dealing with reduced palladium supply as a result of a nearly six week-old strike in South Africa’s platinum-group-metals mining sector.
According to Bloomberg Industries analysts Kenneth Hoffman & Oliver Nugent, “any sanctions imposed by the EU and the U.S. on the export of Russian palladium group metals would create a serious supply shortage that may be difficult for industries to replace.”
This year will show the third consecutive deficit year in global palladium supply, according to a BI survey of analysts. Russia provided 44% of global palladium supply and 13.6% of platinum last year, according to Johnson Matthey.
According to BI, “a pick up in China's demand for platinum group metals may offset any sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and European Union. An increase of 26% sequentially in platinum imports by China in November suggests that domestic supplies are depleting. Russia has typically provided about 30% of China's palladium imports and China may need to increase imports from the country as labor disputes in South African mines continue to affect production.”
Tensions have eased but the crisis is far from over. Russia is the world's largest energy producer and Ukraine hosts a network of strategic pipelines that carry more than half of Russia's gas exports to the EU. So, any conflict between the two countries threatens oil and gas supplies and puts Europe's energy security and indeed economic recovery at risk.
Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 40% of global grain exports, mainly wheat. Russia is also a large corn exporter and a conflict would likely lead to food and energy price inflation.
Ore deposits of palladium are rare and are mostly located in Russia and South Africa. Russian resource nationalism, as has been seen with natural gas, could lead to supply disruptions and to palladium going higher in the coming months. Some analysts believe palladium may be in deficit for most of the next decade as Russia depletes stockpiles. Also, industrial uses and investment demand for the precious metal looks set to increase.
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