It was only a matter of time before, as we said last month [5], January's reported surge in New Home Sales soared by 10% to 468K (well above the 400K then expected) would be revised lower. This just happened, when moments ago the Census Bureau lowered the January number from 468K to 455K. But what's worse is that last month's seasonally abnormal print was obviously an aberration due to the law of small numbers (explained here in detail [6]), February's print was even worse, printing at 440K, below the 445K expected, and the lowest monthly print since September. Then again looking at the chart below shows why 20K houses up or down is absolutely meaningless in the grand scheme of things, as New Home Sales is the one category that resolutely refuses to bounce from the Depression lows.
[7]
In terms of geographic breakdown, there were an actual (unadjusted, non-annualized) sales by region as follows:
- Northeast: 2K
- Midwest: 5K
- South: 20K
- West: 8K
Finally, the median home price, after rising aggressively in 2013, has continue to decline in recent months: just as one would expect when the fourth dead cat bounce in the post-depression housing market hits the zenith of its bounce.
[8]