The jobs number expectation had been falling for a few days into the print this morning and despite the desperate efforts of every status-quo-hugging TV talking-head's Goldilocks scenario, it was not a good report - it missed low expectations and it seems the market is realizing (having been told the bar is very high for an un-taper) that the Fed will not rescue it any time soon. GDP expectations are also tumbling and thus the hope-driven hyper-growth stocks have been monkey-hammered. This is the worst swing for the Nasdaq since Dec 2011 (with Russell, Dow, and Nasdaq -1% YTD). Momos and Biotechs were blamed but this was broad-based selling as JPY carry was unwound in a hurry. Gold rallied above $1300 (+8.1% YTD) as bond yield ripped lower for 5Y's biggest daily drop in 10 weeks (short-end -4bps on the week). VIX pushed back above 14 (but it was clear derisking exposure - as opposed to hedging positions - was the order of the day).
"Not" Off The Lows...
Lead-ilocks!
But gold winning Year-to-Date...
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This is the first time since the post QE4EVA rally began that the BTFD'ers have lost...
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. this is the first time a dip to a technical level (50 or 100DMA) did not result in higher highs)...
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Which left the Russell, Dow, and Nasdaq down 1% YTD, the S&P barely green and Trannies outperforming (for now)...
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The mid-week short-squeeze was unwound in a hurry in the last 2 days...
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Which left The Nasdaq red on the week
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But on the week, Biotechs and Momo gave up all their short-squeeze mid-week gains...
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They tried to ramp at 330 (using VIX) but stocks were having none of it...
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AUDJPY was in charge of stocks (after USDJPY decoupled from stocks at the payroll data)
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But on the week the USD was bid and JPY strengthened today as carry unwound... the CEB floated the strawman QE story (and later denied it) to run some stops and test market reaction...
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Treasuries ended the week mixed (30Y +4bps, 10Y unch, short-end -3bps)
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and we noted 10Y yields are about to golden cross (bullish bond prices)
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Despite USD strength, gold rallied back above $1300 and closed comfortably green on the week
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and in conclusion, we suspect there are more than a few 'investors' out there who feel like this unfortunate FedEx driver...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: The "smart" money is leaving the building...
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