Having been described by Warren Buffett as "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment," Advisor Perspectives' Doug Short is perplexed [3] at Warren's recent note to his CNBC brethren that "markets are not too frothy." [4] Perhaps, as the following chart will shockingly identify, it is time to listen less and study more as Buffett's "Market Cap to GDP" indicator has risen seven quarters in a row and is only trumped in its absolute bubble exuberance by the very peak in 2000. Maybe, despite all the talking heads trying to explain what he meant, Tepper is right to be concerned, that the market is "dangerous" [5] and given his historical comments - looking at this chart - what would Warren do?
Either stocks are expensive or GDP better hurry up and start ramping...
[6]
One wonders what Fed's Yellen and Williams are looking at when they say stocks are in "historical valuation norms" - are they truly judging today based on the peak in 2000 as a possible range?