Here are all the latest news and updates from the rapidly-changing situation in Iraq, courtesy of Bloomberg.
FRONT-LINE FIGHTING
- Iraqi govt troops retain control of 310k b/d Baiji refinery, but facility surrounded by territory held by ISIL-led militants
- Aerial photos yday showed some storage tanks on fire
- Fierce battles near Baiji and Tal Afar airport: BBC
- Fighting continues around Tal Afar, halfway between Mosul and Syrian border
- Clashes reported between ISIL and Kurds south of Kirkuk
FOREIGN POLITICS
- U.S. to send 300 military advisors to Baghdad; lack sufficient intelligence for imminent air strikes: Gen. Dempsey
- Saudi Arabia warns against outside intervention in Iraq, blames “exclusionary policies” of Iraqi cabinet: Saudi ambassador writes in Telegraph
- ISIL hands over captured foreign workers to police
PRESSURE ON MALIKI
- Obama declines to endorse Maliki, but stops short of calling for him to step down
- Challengers emerging to replace Iraq PM: NYT
OIL PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN IRAQ
- Current output from Iraq’s northern fields cut to 30k b/d; supplying Kirkuk refinery
- Northern fields were producing ~650-700k b/d before March 2 closure of export pipeline to Turkey
IRAQ’S NORTHERN EXPORTS
- Exports from Iraq’s northern fields cut since March 2 when the Iraq-Turkey pipeline was bombed
- Exports of Kirkuk crude from Turkish port of Ceyhan fell to 24k b/d in March, zero in April: Oil Ministry
- NOTE: Iraq still exports crude from southern fields via Persian Gulf
ROLE OF KURDISTAN
- Kurdish forces have taken control of Kirkuk oil field and city after central govt forces fled
- Kurds fighting ISIL forces at Bayshir, south of Kirkuk
- Ashti Hawrami, Kurdish Regional Govt’s natural resources minister, offered to export Kirkuk via Kurdish pipelines, but was rebuffed
- Kurds to boost exports to 200k-250k b/d in July from 125k b/d now; targeting 400k b/d by end-2014
BAIJI REFINERY
- Sprawling complex of storage tanks, processing units
- Primary source of products for N Iraq; also supplies Baghdad
- Linked power plant provides electricity to region
- Represents ~40% of Iraq’s refining capacity; processes crude delivered by pipeline and rail from Kirkuk, Ajeel (formerly Saddam) and other fields operated by North Oil Co.
- Lies on Iraq-Ceyhan pipeline; important source of fuel for both govt and ISIL
- Storage tanks full: Iraq Oil Ministry
- Capture would provide immediate source of fuel for insurgents’ vehicles and for sale in N Iraq.
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OIL PRODUCTION/EXPORTS FROM SOUTHERN IRAQ
- Production in south unaffected by fighting so far
- Iraq plans to ship 2.79m b/d from Basrah Oil Terminal in July; most since before 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War
- BP, Exxon, CNPC and Petronas started to evacuate non- Iraqi staff from nation
- Shell ’monitoring the situation very carefully’: Andy Brown, head of Shell Upstream International
- Lukoil has increased security at West Qurna field, where it started production in March
- Southern oil facilities not beyond ISIL’s reach: Barclays
WHO IS ISIL?
- Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is also known as Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)
- A Sunni jihadist group led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
- Broke away from al-Qaeda in 2013
- Want to create a Sunni caliphate across Iraq, Syria and neighboring countries
- Control large parts of northern Syria
- Well funded through sales of Syrian oil and antiquities
- Vowed to attack Baghdad and Shiite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf
WHAT IS THE CORE ISSUE?
- ISIL insurgents have overrun large parts of northern and central Iraq; Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Shiite Muslim-led govt now seeking to regain control
- 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and subsequent rise to power of Shiite-Muslim majority alienated Sunni Muslims; Sunnis felt marginalized under Maliki; some support ISIL
- Maliki accuses ISIL of an alliance with Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath party
- Shiites constitute majority in southern Iraq
Source: BBG
