Following last month's far-stronger-than-expected 'defense-spending-stuffed' Durable Goods orders [2], which were subsequently revised downwards, they plunged in May (at the heart of Q2 GDP creation). Against expectations of no gain, Durable Goods Orders tumbled 1.0% - the biggest miss in 2014. It seems the brief bounce back from weather has now gone entirely as it seems no submarines were ordered this month or excess Blackhawks to save the day. Not exactly great news for Q2 GDP (especially after the Q1 collapse). New orders ex transportation dropped for the first time since January - again hardly differentiating Q1 'weather' from Q2 'rebound'.
[3]
On a year-over-year basis, Durable goods are once again about to enter the red zone:
[4]
And as for core capex orders, the trend is not your friend:
[5]
