It appears the hopes and dreams of a resurgence in US GDP in Q2 will have to be extended-and-pretended another quarter. As Gallup notes [4], Americans' self-reports of daily spending fell back in June, averaging $91 for the month - down notably from a six-year high of $98 in May - and flat to the $90 average found in June 2013. Not exactly the pent-up demand 'surge' so many economists (and Fed PhDs) have been calling for... Even more concerning, Gallup notes, the drop in daily spending among all Americans can largely be attributed to upper-income Americans spending less in June. Even the 1% are cutting back?
As Gallup notes,
This $91 figure for June suggests a mixed bag for the economy. While it represents a much higher level of consumer spending than the $60 to $70 averages found for much of 2009 to 2012, it also represents the first decline in the monthly average since January of this year.
[5]
While Americans' self-reported spending in June was generally on par or lower than their average May spending, this month's $7 drop is one of the largest recorded by Gallup during this time of year since 2008, when June spending fell by $10. The June 2008 spending average of $104 is still the highest average for that month in Gallup's six-year trend.
...
The drop in daily spending among all Americans can largely be attributed to upper-income Americans spending less in June. Americans living in households with $90,000 a year or more in income reported spending on average $189 a day in May, but this dropped to $157 in June.
[6]
As Gallup concludes, Americans' average daily spending dropped in June from May's levels. This indicator fits in the context of scores on Gallup's other economic measures. Job creation remained flat, although maintaining May's six-year high. Economic confidence dipped slightly from May, but remains higher than the economic confidence found several years ago in the depth of the recession.
That self-reported spending did not increase in June is important, given that consumer expenditures are a significant driver of the U.S. economy. While Americans are spending more than they did several years ago, spending has not returned to pre-recession levels.
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By Bye Q2 GDP surge...
