We have been a little more than skeptical of the extent to which the total and utter $118 Billion collapse in Q1 GDP in the USA was due to weather - as opposed to the tapering reality of an American consumer that feels anything but 'recovered'. The mainstream meteoreconomists have dismissed the weakness as "one-off", "noise", "an aberration", or "pent-up demand" and heralded the Q2 GDP resurgence. However, one glance at the following table of the worst US weather disasters (and the consequent economic growth impacts) should put the nail in the coffin once and for all of the "weather-apologists" among 'real' and 'pretend' economists everywhere.
[3]
As J.Lyons Fund Management concludes (correctly)... [4]
we’re not suggesting that weather played no part in the weak 1Q GDP number. Perhaps it did.
We simply take exception to the suggestion that a -3% GDP print be written off as a “weather-induced” outlier.
This is particularly so when comparing the figure with historical GDP readings occurring during quarters encompassing the worst weather-related disasters in U.S. history, which generally fared just fine.
Perhaps we’re just not smart enough to understand the nuanced effects that cold weather can have on 3 months of economic activity across 50 states.
But when we see a GDP figure that far outside the norm of even disaster-related quarters, it raises our BS-meter.
h/t @JLyonsFundMgmt via My401kPro.com
