Amid consternation at the market's low levels of volatility - and concerns voiced regularly by Fed officials of 'complacency' [5] - it appears the FOMC has never been more confident in its omnipotence. As WSJ reports [6], despite being consistently too optimistic about economic growth and too pessimistic about the falling unemployment rate, Federal reserve policy makers have never been less uncertain about their forecasts...
[7]
With consensus 2014 GDP expectations collapsing to +1.7% (and the Fed still at 2.1 to 2.3%), it appears the Fed's peak complacency is perfectly anti-correlated to the actual uncertainty about the future.
Source: WSJ [6]
