Following last month's exuberant explosion of job gains according to ADP (the most since Nov 2012), the ADP employment report shows jobs missing expectations at 218k (vs 230k) and tumbling from the 281k print in June. Curious, there were still two days in the month when ADP estimated the full month print, which is curious considering ADP staunchly refuses to provide its unadjusted numbers. This is the 3rd ADP miss in 4 months. Zandi helpful addition, "there's job growth everywhere" except as we noted - not as much as expected. Today's print appears the anti-goldilocks, not low enough to prompt the Fed to get more dovish and not high enough to suggest growth is anything like markets expect.
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The breakdown:
By sector: So much for the manufcaturing renaissance (again), and all those exuberante PMI prints.
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Some details:
Goods-producing employment rose by 16,000 jobs in July, down from 43,000 jobs gained in June. The construction industry added 12,000 jobs over the month, less than half last month’s gain. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 3,000 jobs in July, less than one-third the number of jobs added in June.
Service-providing employment rose by 202,000 jobs in July, down from 238,000 in June. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed 61,000 jobs in July, down from 79,000 in June. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 52,000, down slightly from June’s 56,000. The 9,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down 25% from last month’s number.
"Although down from June, the July jobs number marks the fourth straight month of employment gains above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The July employment gain was softer than June, but remains consistent with a steadily improving job market. At the current pace of job growth unemployment will quickly decline. Layoffs are still receding and hiring and job openings are picking up. If current trends continue, the economy will return to full employment by late 2016.”
Here are the key charts:
Where the jobs were:
