Today was a significant day for many markets. For the 7th time in the last 8 months, US Treasuries opened the month with weakness (30Y up 8.5bps, 2Y +3bps from Friday). Significant JPY and GBP weakness pushed the USD Index to fresh 14-month highs (+0.25% on the week). USD strength smacked gold (-$20 to $1265), silver, and crude oil significantly lower (WTI under $93 and Brent testing towards $100, both down over $3). US equities decoupled (lower) from VIX and JPY-carry around the European close after hitting new all-time highs in the early session (over 2,006 for S&P Futs). Volume was better (but then it was a down day). Despite oil weakness, Trannies took off leading the day (with Dow and S&P closing lower from Friday). Credit traded with stocks for most of the day but ignored the late-day VWAP ramp in the S&P, closing at its wides. The ubiquitous late-day buying panic saved S&P 2,000... because it can.
2.5% of all trades today are for 1 share!
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) September 2, 2014 [6]
1 out of 4 trades today is for less than 100 shares. This is a record since odd-lots began reporting Dec 2012
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) September 2, 2014 [7]
Which helps explain the machines' new tactic for tickling stocks higher for VWAP sales (oddlots vs quote stuffing)
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Because it's all about 2000...
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From the "good" data this morning, stocks struggled... only to rip back positive into the close...
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But from Friday's close, Trannies are up; Dow and S&P down...
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Treasury yields surged...
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The 'sell' Treasuries at the start of the month trade...
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Perhaps September is recoupling month?
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Credit decoupled towards the close...
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And VIX decoupled around the European close...
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The USD surged - driven by JPY and GBP weakness...
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EURJPY and USDJPY decoupled entirely from stocks and after the US open, so did AUDJPY...
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Which sent PMs (gold 3-month lows) and oil tumbling...
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Crude oil prices plunged...
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Gold and USDJPY appear to have recoupled...
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Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Ye Olde Japanese Rate Vol vs Gold correlation continues to gether pace... all about bank VaR /cash management [22]
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