Remember when conventional wisdom was that the world in 2014 was humming on all cylinders? Good times. Then this happened: according to Goldman's Global Leading Indicator, aka its famous "Swirlogram", global growth just hit a brick wall in the month of September.
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From Goldman:
Despite still robust US growth outturns, and expectations of a Q4 bounce in China’s real GDP numbers, the Advanced GLI reading for September (released last Thursday, September 18) suggests that the global industrial cycle will start to slow. GLI growth, month-on-month, slipped a bit in September, though is still positive. This sequential downturn in growth, modest though it may be, pushed the Advanced GLI into the Slowdown phase of the cycle (see Exhibit 7). This reading is keyed off the September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey, which is used as a proxy for global September PMI numbers that have yet to be released. During the past year or so, we have found that phase shifts first become visible in the Advanced GLI and are, for several months unwound by the Final GLI before settling in for good. So the September Final GLI – due out on October 1st - may well still be in Expansion, though sequential changes in growth may be barely positive, as was the case in August.
Oh well when all else once again fails, as it will, there is always the, dun dun dun, Untaper.
