The stock market is in a perilous state.
Ever since 2008, anytime stocks began to collapse sharply, “someone” stepped in and put a floor under the market.
In 2010, the S&P 500 staged a death cross, where its 50-DMA broke below its 126-DMA (the half year moving average). Stocks were in a perilous state with the 2008 Crash still in everyone’s short-term memory.
The Fed stepped in, hinting at, then all but promising, and then finally launching QE 2 in July, August, and then November, respectively.
This set off a rally in stocks that lasted until the EU Crisis erupted in full force in 2011. Once again stocks staged a death cross. And once again, the Fed stepped in with promises of action followed by the announcement of Operation Twist in September 2011. Stocks took off and we were back to the races.
Which brings us to 2012. Europe was really going down in flames. Greece, then Portugal, and even Spain were lining up for bailouts. And the bailouts were getting larger by the month with Spain requesting €100 billion in June 2012.
ECB President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” to hold the EU together. But the carnage was spilling over even into US markets. So Bernanke’s Fed promised yet another QE program, though this new program would be “open-ended” in June.
Sure enough, Bernanke unveiled QE 3 in September 2012. He then upped the ante, unveiling QE 4 in November 2012.
Stocks took off again, launching one of the sharpest, strongest rallies in history:
Which brings us to today. Stocks once again are in trouble, having taken out their 50-DMA, and the 126-DMA. We’re likely just a few weeks away from another “death cross”… and the Fed is fully committed to ending QE at the end of the month.
Moreover, the ECB is having trouble engaging in QE because Germany is not overly fond of the idea. China just announced that it will not engage in a large scale stimulus program in the near future. And the Bank of Japan has admitted it will likely not announce another massive QE program anytime too soon.
So who will save stocks this time?
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Best Regards
Graham Summers