The best summary of the morning after the Fed's official end of QE3 comes from DB's Jim Reid, and is as follows: "The surprises from last night's FOMC statement was not that the Fed wants to be more hawkish than the market currently prices in and that its wants to raise rates in 2015, but that they chose to be so confident so soon after the recent volatility. Last night's statement would have been near impossible to publish two weeks ago so it is a bit of a risk. However as ever the Fed is data dependant and therefore what they say they are going to likely do at some point in the future might prove to be largely irrelevant when the time comes. As a minimum the Fed seem quite comfortable withdrawing liquidity from the market and with that we continue to think that bouts of volatility are more likely now than they were for most of the two years that QE3 was in existence. A lot now depends on the ECB and maybe the BoJ picking up the liquidity baton. We may not have to wait too long to find out about their future direction as the BoJ have an interesting meeting tomorrow and the ECB one this time next week."
Indeed, the Fed's hawkishness and the resultant dollar strength are already having an impact on global fixed income markets, as both Japan and Denmark sold Bills at negative yields for the first time. Not only that, but despite another day of endless Japan jawboning which perhaps sought to extend the JPY losses above 109, the USDJPY reverted back to its 109 tractor, a level which it may find far too high as increasingly more Japanese businesses are going bankrupt fighting the weak (gasp) currency. And then there was the Bank of Russia which is rumored to be intervening in the market ahead of its key rate decision tomorrow when it is expected to lower rates by 50 bps to 8.00%, the result being the biggest Ruble surge since January 2010, rising by over 2.8%. What can one say: it is a central bank world after all.
But more to the point, after a relatively tame reaction yesterday in the aftermath of the Fed statement, there has been a sudden and sharp bout of risk-offness around the globe, with Eurostoxx finding an air pocket, following German deflation data which was negative across the board and another day of broad weakness surrounding Italian banks in the aftermath of the "successful" stress test. Perhaps most surprising is the speed with which the session, which was until just an hour ago looking at an unchanged open, turned sharply red, suggesting that while volumes continue to be low, liquidity is near record lows.
So despite opening in the green following a batch of strong earnings reports, European equities trade firmly in the red (Eurostoxx -0.9%) with the DAX slipping below 9000 and Eurostoxx below 3000. This comes as attention resides with the lacklustre German CPI releases with most of the regional results slipping into negative territory around the 0.2-0.3% level. Furthermore, sentiment has also been buoyed in a continuation of the response to the hawkish Fed release yesterday and comments from the EBA chief who said banks should not feel too secure after ECB stress tests, even those banks who passed them. As such financials (particularly in the periphery) are being squeezed lower, with basic materials names are also notably lower, given the broadly stronger USD which was weighed on the commodity complex. US equity futures, which had flirted with the unchanged line for most of the session, just dropped in sympathy to overnight lows.
Elsewhere, Greek bank stocks are down 5%-9% with the GE/GR 10yr government bond yield spread seen wider by 60bps on the session, as the country continues to face a "climate of uncertainty" until February, amid snap election risk, according to the administrative reform minister Mitsotakis. Elsewhere, fixed income markets have been provided some reprieve alongside the slide lower in equities, with the Bund currently residing just shy of yesterday’s highs at 150.66.
To summarize (even though with liquidity as non-existant as it is, this may be completely stale by the time we go to print in a minute or so), European shares erase gains, fall close to intraday lows following the Fed’s decision to end QE. Banks, basic resources sectors underperform, while health care, tech outperform. Companies including Shell, Barclays, Aviva, Volkswagen, Alcatel-Lucent, ASMI, Bayer released earnings. German unemployment unexpectedly declines. The Italian and U.K. markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swiss the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; German yields decline. Commodities decline, with nickel, silver underperforming and wheat outperforming. U.S. jobless claims, GDP, personal consumption, core PCE due later.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 1963.7
- Stoxx 50 down 0.9% to 2955.6
- US 10Yr yield down 1bps to 2.31%
- German 10Yr yield down 3bps to 0.87%
- MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.3% to 140.2
- Gold spot down 0.7% to $1204.2/oz
Bulletin headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg
- Despite opening in the green after a batch of strong earnings, EU equities trade firmly in the red (Eurostoxx -0.9%) as attention turns towards weak regional German CPIs and the more hawkish than expected Fed.
- The Post-FOMC USD strength has seen EUR/USD and GBP/USD break below 1.2600 and 1.6000 respectively, with USD/JPY breaking 109.00 to the upside.
- Looking ahead, attention turns to the advanced reading of Q3 GDP, weekly jobs data and the US Treasury wrapping up this week's auction with USD 29bln in a 7yr note.
- Treasuries steady, curve spreads flatten. Week’s auctions conclude with $29b 7Y notes, yield 2.025% in WI trading vs 2.235% award in September.
- 2Y yield rose most in 3-1/2 years yesterday after Fed officials dismissed recent turmoil in financial markets and focused instead on “solid” employment gains that will keep them on a path toward an interest-rate increase next year
- German unemployment declined 22k in October, most in six months, vs median estimate for 4k increase in Bloomberg survey; adjusted jobless rate held at 6.7%
- Greek bond investors face a rollercoaster ride for the next four months as the government tries to contain the risk of snap elections, Minister of Administrative Reform Kyriakos Mitsotakis said
- ECB chooses Deutsche Bank, State Street, ING and Amundi to advise on ABS purchases, Manager Magazin reports, without saying how it obtained the information
- Obama said the U.S. must keep sending health workers to West Africa to “snuff out” Ebola at its source, warning for the second straight day that travel bans and quarantines won’t keep the U.S. safe
- Republicans, who hold a majority of U.S. governor’s offices and legislatures, seek to expand their dominance to unprecedented levels in Nov. 4 elections that will set the agenda on issues such as abortion, taxes and regulation
- The advance of the U.K. Independence Party is being tested today in an election for a police commissioner’s post in Labour’s political heartland of northern England, three weeks before the party seeks its second elected member of the House of Commons
- Sovereign yields mostly lower; Greece 10Y +38bps to 7.96%. Asian stocks mostly higher, European stocks and U.S. equity- index futures decline. Brent crude and gold decline, copper gains
US Economic Calendar
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. 25, est. 285k (prior 283k)
- Continuing claims, Oct. 18, est. 2.352m (prior 2.351m)
- Continuing claims, Oct. 18, est. 2.352m (prior 2.351m)</li></ul>
- 8:30am: GDP, 3Q, est. 3% (prior 4.6%)
- Personal Consumption, 3Q, est. 1.9% (prior 2.5%)
- GDP Price Index, 3Q, est. 1.4% (prior 2.1%)
- Core PCE, 3Q, est. 1.4% (prior 2%)
- Core PCE, 3Q, est. 1.4% (prior 2%)</li></ul>
- 9:00am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington
- 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7Y notes
ASIA
JGBs trade down 2 ticks at 146.50 in quiet trade ahead of tomorrow’s key risk events including; BoJ rate decision and semi-annual economic forecast, jobless report and CPI releases. Asian markets trade mixed with corporate earnings the focus of much of today’s session so far. The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.7% supported by a weaker JPY which lost ground against the greenback following the FOMC decision. The Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) and Hang Seng (-0.5%) traded mixed, the latter led lower by oil names after CNOOC (-4.6%) and PetroChina (-1.2%) reported downbeat earnings.
Further cautious sentiment has also stemmed after the Palestinian Authority President Abbas said the closure of Al- Aqsa is declaration of war. This comes after Jerusalem's Israeli mayor visited the Al-Aqsa mosque compound Tuesday, angering Islamic authorities. Ahead, the UN Security Council is to hold an emergency meeting Wednesday to discuss Israel's plans to build more Jewish settlements in Arab east Jerusalem.
FX
Price action in FX markets has been predominantly dictated by movements in the USD following the more hawkish than expected Fed release. As such, USD pairs trade on the back-foot, USD/JPY broke above 109.00 to the upside to post a 3-week high while EUR/USD and GBP/USD fell below the 1.2600 and 1.6000 handles respectively. Weakness was observed in AUD led by cross-related selling in AUD/JPY and selling in AUD/USD by a European Life Insurer name. Elsewhere, NZD pared its post-RBNZ losses, where the central bank left rates unchanged, talked down the currency and dropped its reference to further policy tightening.
The RUB has strengthened significantly in recent trade, with USD/RUB falling around 2.5%. Tomorrow the Russian key interest rate decision is scheduled for 1030BST where expectations are for a 50BPS hike from 8.00% to 8.50%. Analysts at Goldman Sachs earlier this morning said that the Russian central bank will increase its key rate by 50 bps at its meeting tomorrow, abolish rule-based interventions and conduct discretionary intervention large enough to stabilise the RUB.
Brazil’s COPOM unexpectedly raised it SELIC rate by 25bps to 11.25%; decision was not unanimous and had favour vote split of 5-3. (BBG)
COMMODITIES
WTI crude futures trade lower after retreating from a 1-week high following the release of lower-than-expected- build in crude stockpiles, weighed on by a strong USD overnight. Similar weakness was observed in spot gold which fell over 1% to trade at its lowest level since October 8. In terms of notable energy related news, Libya is markedly increasing its oil prices, according to people familiar with the matter (WSJ) and Ukraine and Russia have failed to reach a gas agreement at their overnight talks with the EU. (FT)
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DB's Jim Reid Concludes the overnight event recap
The surprises from last night's FOMC statement was not that the Fed wants to be more hawkish than the market currently prices in and that its wants to raise rates in 2015, but that they chose to be so confident so soon after the recent volatility. Last night's statement would have been near impossible to publish two weeks ago so it is a bit of a risk. However as ever the Fed is data dependant and therefore what they say they are going to likely do at some point in the future might prove to be largely irrelevant when the time comes. As a minimum the Fed seem quite comfortable withdrawing liquidity from the market and with that we continue to think that bouts of volatility are more likely now than they were for most of the two years that QE3 was in existence. A lot now depends on the ECB and maybe the BoJ picking up the liquidity baton. We may not have to wait too long to find out about their future direction as the BoJ have an interesting meeting tomorrow (more below) and the ECB one this time next week.
Reviewing the FOMC statement in more detail, the main highlights were that QE will end on time this week and that the ‘considerable time’ language around policy rates was retained. DB’s Peter Hooper noted that the statement was clearly more positive on labour market developments in recognising ‘solid job gains’ and ‘lower unemployment’. Furthermore they also noted that the ‘underutilization of labour resources is no longer significant and is gradually diminishing’. On activity the Committee also dropped the reference to fiscal drag holding things back. The Committee was more downbeat on the inflation picture though as they noted that market-based measures of inflation have declined somewhat while survey based measures have been stable. For us it was interesting to see the mention of disinflationary pressures arising from lower energy prices (and other factors).
Trying to make sense of this all, DB’s Peter Hooper noted that his view remains consistent with a mid-2015 lift-off under current Fed expectations. His belief is that on balance the committee is feeling better about activity and the labour market although still somewhat concerned about the inflation picture with risks likely more skewed to the downside. Peter also mentions that retaining the wording that policy rates will be held at current levels for ‚a considerable time? following the end of the asset purchase program this month seems fully consistent with the guidance in recent Fed speak from near the center of the Committee. One interesting thing to look out for in the near term will be any additional changes in wording at upcoming meetings that could suggest any changes to expectations of a mid-year lift off.
The market reaction to the statement was dominated by the move higher in the US Dollar and yields. Markets brought forward their expectations of the first rate hike slightly to currently pricing a first full rate hike around late next year from completely pricing out a 2015 hike two weeks ago. With that also came a round of bear flattening especially at the front end of the Treasury curve with the 2s/10s curve flattening by around 7bps to 184bps. Although a firm performance of the 30yr (-2bps to 3.049%) actually led to a bull flattening at the very long end. The Dollar appreciated sharply against key currencies with the Euro, Sterling and Yen now around a percent lower from pre-FOMC statement levels at 1.262, 1.598 and 109, as we go to print. Away from rates and FX, the S&P 500 hit an intraday low shortly after the FOMC statement before recovering back up to just being -0.14% lower on the day. US credit was also slightly weaker with the CDX HY index ending the day 0.38 points lower.
Looking at the overnight session Asian equity markets are somewhat mixed. The Nikkei (+0.8%) is up ahead of BoJ's decision tomorrow and is probably also helped by the weaker JPY. Elsewhere we see bourses in Australia, India and Shanghai moderately higher despite the slightly negative lead from the US session yesterday. The Hang Seng (-0.6%) and the HSCEI (-1.0%) are standout laggards this morning led by declines in energy stocks. News that China's biggest bank has reported its largest spike in bad loans since 2006 probably hasn't help. NPLs rose 9% in Q3 from the previous quarter even though overall earnings came in line with market estimates. Asian credit markets are marginally weaker with IG spreads 1-2bp wider while China onshore IG spread curves are around 3-5bp steeper led by firmer action in the front end.
The FOMC statement aside the other interesting macro release yesterday was the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey. Interestingly the survey shows that Eurozone banks eased loan standards to the private sector over the quarter whilst demand for loans also climbed across both business and households. Although modest, this now represents a second consecutive Bank Lending survey showing a higher proportion of eurozone banks easing credit rather than tightening lending whilst crucially the survey highlights that the outlook for the next quarter also painted a further positive picture. As a side note, the survey also mentioned that by far the biggest reason behind not taking TLTRO money is because the banks have no funding issues at present, rather than there being a lack of demand for loans from the private sector.
Away from macro, corporate earnings have also been keeping company analysts pretty busy lately. 34 S&P 500 companies reported yesterday with 28 of them exceeding EPS estimates although only half of them managed to top the street’s sales revenue forecasts – a theme that has been ongoing for many years now. On the other side of the pond 19 Stoxx600 companies reported yesterday and the beat/miss stats were fairly balanced with just over half of the companies beating analysts’ earnings and revenue expectations.
Before we preview the calendar for today, tomorrow’s BoJ announcement will be a key highlight for markets over the next 24 hours. DB’s Japanese Fixed Income strategist wrote that most market participants likely expect the BoJ to maintain its current policy this time round. The outlook report will likely lower forecasts for GDP in FY14, but maintain the outlook for 2% inflation in FY15. A focus will be whether Kuroda says he is fully committed to keeping current monetary policy open ended, and whether he outlines a target for the BoJ's asset balance at end-2015. However as a Reuters article overnight noted with just five months left before Governor Kuroda's self-imposed 2-year deadline for achieving his 2% inflation target there's also reports about divides among policy makers which may undermine public confidence.
As for today the first Q3 GDP read will probably be the key data highlight in the US although we also have the usual jobless claims series. Yellen will speak on Diversity in the Economic Professions but off a prepared text and there will not be a Q&A so it isn't likely to be a market moving affair. Importantly we will also get October's inflation numbers from Germany and Spain as well as the Q3 GDP report of the latter. We'll also hear speeches from Bank of Finland's Liikanen (on Europe's financial sector) and Bank of Spain's Linde's (on the role of central banks in Euroland) today.