EURCHF is rapidly falling towards its 1.20 peg level [5] - not seen since September 2012 (when the SNB described the "massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.") It appears the CHF buying pressure is based on traders betting on the Swiss Gold Initiative (SGI) referendum on Nov 30th - if it were to pass, the SNB would be forced to choose between buying gold or giving up on the peg (and allowing even more "massive overvaluation" of the swissy). For now, it seems EURCHF is the best indicator of SGI risk as precious metals remain unimpressed by the potential demand [6]. Of course, as ForexLive notes [7] one trader's comments, "even if the gold vote goes against them they can still hit the print button to infinity," to defend the peg; though that may just viciously impact the cost of the physical gold they would be forced to buy.
The Swiss Franc is the strongest against the Euro since the peg began in 2012...
[8]
but it appears traders are fearful of the peg being broken as implied volatility surges (hedgers?)
As we concluded previously,
The Swiss establishment has been reliant upon the public’s ignorance in these matters, but now they are up against a formidable opponent in Egon von Greyerz. Not only that, but they can clearly see that, as elsewhere around the world, the public is fast becoming disenchanted with the status quo; and that is potentially very dangerous for these people.
What is important to understand here is that if the initiative passes it will be part of the Swiss constitution IMMEDIATELY — not in two years, as many blogs and websites are suggesting. This means that the government and parliament cannot touch it. Only another referendum can change it. This is proper democracy for you.
The closer we get to the vote on November 30, the bigger this story is going to become, and the bigger it becomes, the higher the chance that the yes vote wins.
Should that happen, it will undoubtedly set off alarm bells throughout the gold market, as yet more physical gold will need to be repatriated and another sizeable, price-insensitive buyer will enter the marketplace.
Charts: Bloomberg
