Putin, the next President of the United States
Would it be that bad? Of course it would, he’s is a communist.
There I said it. The one thing that the entire world is absolutely reluctant to admin when dealing with Putin. Let there be no doubt in your minds that this man has one ambition: To return Russia to its former glory days of the Soviet Union. Glory days is a sarcastic, contemptuous antonym for the most decrepit center of existence that was active in post-world war II Europe. This was the purest form of mind and spiritual control that has been known to modern man in recent history.
Fact: Putin will not and does not want to deal with Europe, the US, most of South America, Australia, parts of Asia and Africa. The leader of the current Russian Federation does not care about the rest of the world unless a specific country would like to become part of the “old regime”.
Fact: There will no democracy in Russia. If you are under some spell that the winds of change will waft over into Putingrad, you must be smokin’ some serious crack.
I realize that this article will probably ban me and my family from ever venturing into the lovely city of St. Petersburg (From what I understand, it’s quite lovely, actually).
At the heart of Putin is a KGB agent that has lived up to his true potential, a megalomaniac. He proved to the world that he will risk the entire welfare of his country to achieve a goal.
Let us initially take a look at the most recent historical facts. He waltzed into Crimea like he owned the place. If you speak to certain Russians, even those outside of Russian, they will tell you that Crimea was part of mother Russia during Tsarist times. Which is factually correct. The half year long Russian/Ukrainian conflict has spurned limited response from the West. Yes, Sanctions. But are they really working or is Russia try to avert a cash crisis with the decrease in commodity prices. The answer will need to play itself out for a bit of time before a final analysis can be rendered.
Laws do not exist in Russia. Putin is the law. He has an 80% plus approval rating. He is seen as restoring order in a Wild West environment (i.e. early 1990’s). The elderly have a pension that can live on, the young have an education. The working families are employed and can put food and Vodka on the dinner table. This is exactly what the soviet era was about.
Recent military maneuvers by the Russians resulted in NATO issuing “concern” over the actions.
No, we are not leaving out the elephant in the room. The MH17 downed passenger jet. Outside of economic sanctions, what did the west actually do? NOTHING. This was the ultimate pussy-footing reaction that Putin yearns to see.
The one item that is potentially lethal to Russia is the falling prices of commodities. If the west can orchestrate a financially engineered collapse of the energy, commodity, and raw material markets without single handedly destroying western countries, this would be the proverbial coup d’état.
The most recent military activity indicates Russia’s desire to bring the former block countries back to “Mother Russia”. This man yearns for the return of the Iron Curtain. On a megalomaniac scale of 0 – 10, he probably scores an 8.375. He has his dirty little fingers in every part of the Russian economy. Western banks have a difficult time tracking down source of funds as they may be colluded with the Putin regime.
Sources in the EU indicate that government leaders prefer to assuage this individual instead of antagonizing him, the proverbial “poking the bear”. Secretly, conversations around Europe mention that Putin may be “a few sandwiches short of a full picnic setting”. (wink, wink)
Internally, Russia is allowing faster citizenship tracks to acquire more young men available for the draft.
No political leader in their right mind has any desire to start a massive military offensive with the Russians. Think of the implications on global politics, macro economies, and the financial markets.
So here is my prediction:
Putin will continue to do as he pleases. What happens in Russia, stays in Russia. From a military perspective, the more emergency meetings the EU and NATO have on the Ukraine situation without much resolution, the more empowering it is to the Putin Regime. Putin understands that NATO, EU, and the US is more or less “powerless” with respect to military retribution.
The financial side is where things can hurt Putin and Russia. 50% of Russian revenues come from commodities and energy. Oil hovering below $80 per barrel is certainly a strain on the economy. The Ruble at multi month lows points to difficulties for international companies transacting business in Russia. Obviously, the low ruble hurts the Russians ability to profit from their energy supply lines. This is why Russia is so keen on transacting trade with China, specifically energy and commodities. Remember, China as a tight grasp on the fluctuation of the Yuan. It’s a match made in the early Soviet Era, literally.
Short of a massive commodity and energy price collapse, Putin will continue to show his prowess. Global leaders will focus on the diplomatic approaches but will fall short of anything decisive. Putin already knows this fact.
Outside of an internal military coup, massive debilitating sanctions, financial ruin within the Russian government, destruction of the revenue streams, any Western based news we see regarding Putin’s regime will be pure lip service.
Disclosure:
I did not bring up the oligarchs in this article, as I enjoy feeling my own pulse in the morning.
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