Forget Black Friday and Q4 GDP... it appears, from the most recent forecasts that from Wednesday on this week, the eastern US faces a 'White Five-Day' as Accuweather reports [4] "an increasing likelihood for a swath of heavy snow stretching from eastern Pennsylvania through New York's Hudson Valley and across much of New England before all is said and done." Furthermore, as WaPo notes, [5] Wednesday’s possible storm has a chance to develop into a legitimate Nor’easter (though current models offer 3 scenarios).
East Coast travelers are being put on alert that the potential exists for a winter storm to unfold on Wednesday, the busiest travel day of the year.
The culprit for any headaches or nightmares for travelers trying to reach their Thanksgiving Day destinations will be a storm system set to ride up or parallel the East Coast at midweek.
[6]
There is growing concern for the storm to be strengthening and tracking close enough to the coast for an expansive area of heavy rain and snow to create travel nightmares in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast."
The storm should rapidly strengthen off the coast of New England Wednesday night, leading to strong and gusty winds, especially near the coast. This would lead to some blowing and drifting of the snow, making travel Wednesday night very difficult," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Ben Noll as he discussed the impacts in this storm scenario.
"There is also an increasing likelihood for a swath of heavy snow stretching from eastern Pennsylvania through New York's Hudson Valley and across much of New England before all is said and done. Some locales could see a foot of snow."
As The Washington Post reports though, [5] there are 3 scenarios for now...
1) The storm is more out to sea, with just a glancing blow for the East Coast Wednesday (Canadian model, GFS parallel model, and GFS ensemble mean) – Low impact
Canadian model forecast for 7 p.m. Wednesday (WeatherBell.com)
2) The storm moves up the coast just offshore, with snow for coastal areas and sharp cutoff to precipitation farther inland (GFS operational model, European ensemble mean) – Moderate impact
GFS model forecast for 7 p.m. Wednesday (WeatherBell.com)
3) The storm hugs the coast, with heavy coastal rain and strong winds, and heavy inland snow (European operational model) – High impact
European model simulation at 7 p.m. Wednesday night. Dark blue line is 32F line – near and west of which accumulating snow would be most likely. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
Scenarios 2 and, especially, 3 would pose major headaches for travelers on the busiest travel day of the year from Florida to New England. It is too soon to say which of these three scenarios is most likely.
* * *
