Having surged to last October's highs last month, Chicago PMI tumbled back to mediocrity in November, missing extrapolatedly exuberant expecatations by the most since July. As 60.8 (against 63.0 expectations) this is barely above the levels of Q1's polar vortex as New Orders, Employment, and Production all fell (with only 2 components rising). This is the 4th largest MoM drop since Lehman but MNI remains confident that "the trend remains positive..."
[4]
Forecast range 60 - 68.9 from 46 economists surveyed
* Prices Paid rose compared to last month
* New Orders fell compared to last month
* Employment fell compared to last month
* Inventory rose compared to last month
* Supplier Deliveries fell compared to last month
* Production fell compared to last month
* Order Backlogs fell compared to last month
* Business activity has been positve for 12 months over the past year.
* Number of Components Rising: 2
[5]
Commenting on the Chicago Report, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “Following the sharp rise in the Barometer to a one year high in October it wasn’t too surprising to see activity ease somewhat in November. Overall the trend remains firm and activity looks set to pick up in Q4 from Q3.“
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Trend positive?
