While the ECB's announcement is due out in minutes, the only thing the market is looking forward to is Draghi's actual press conference due to take place in exactly one hour. It is here that the former Italian and Goldman banker is expected to take jawboning to new levels, even if - as is customary - he actually does nothing and considering the ECB's balance sheet, which after all its private covered bond and ABS QE is growing at the "torrid" pace of some €4 billion per week, not even enough to offset the natural decline in the ECB's balance sheet, his actions so far have achieved absolutely nothing the algos are starting to get impatient.
That said, in also keeping with traditiona, no analyst is actually willing to step out of line and forecast anything market-moving.
Here, courtesy of RanSquawk, is a summary of what Wall Street's individual banks expect from Draghi in a few minutes.
- Host of tier 1 investment banks have recently revised their base case scenarios for an ECB QE programme from a ‘No/unlikely’ to a 1H 2015 timeframe
- Despite the likelihood of an ECB sovereign bond purchase programme in the near-term it is highly unlikely that this week’s meeting will see the unveiling of such stimulus
- Q&A session may garner particular focus given the recent slide in oil prices
European banks put forth their expectations for today's ECB meeting, while JP Morgan see the FFR target at 0.75%-1.0% by December 2015
- Credit Suisse - Risks are skewed toward ECB under-delivering on investors' expectations for sovereign QE given recent moves in EUR rates markets. However, they note two things that may move the market today. 1: Full commitment to start EBG purchases in coming weeks, with clear guidelines. 2: Any comments in press conference that shake investors' expectations that sovereign QE in Q1 2015 is basically a done deal.
- UBS - Do not expect ECB to unveil any new policy measures or issue major new guidance, instead likely to maintain a wait-and-see attitude this week and also on Jan 22nd, before gearing up to a new stage of policy action March 2015.
- Goldman Sachs- Draghi to signal further possible measures are being discussed. ECB will announce a sovereign dent QE programme during the 1H of 2015.
- BNP - Expect announcement of a broadening of ECB asset purchases at today's meeting to include sovereign bonds, in tandem with downward revisions to staff inflation and growth projections.
- RBC - Expect no change in policy with governing council waiting for TLTRO results on December 11th.
- JP Morgan - Fed should finally begin to lift rates next year, taking the FFR target to 0.75%-1.0% by December 2015.
