It is the first time since 2008 where the last day of the prior year, and the first day of the new year were both down.
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This is the 4th down day in a row... we suspect everyone needs to remember the following...
The early strength this morning was what everyone expected after Friday's flush in US equity markets but soon after this morning's dismal data, things went just a little bit turbo... the standard 330ET ramp occurred - got the Dow and S&P green... BUT the S&P cash ended the day just red!
[7]
Catching down to Treasuries reality...
[8]
Bonds rallied significantly today and on the week...down 12-15bps and yields lower 4 days in a row...
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The US Dollar rallied notably today also - closing at X year highs
[10]
USD strength today whipped PMs around and crude fell to cycle lows - another weak week...
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Close up on WTI...
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Post-FOMC, Crude is down almst 9%, gold and silver around 1% lower...
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Come on!!!!
[14]
Some context on the 'down on last day of prior year and first day of new year' meme from MKM's Jonathan Krinsky:
"[It is] the first time since 2008 where the last day of the prior year, and the first day of the new year were both down. While that may have appear to have negative connotations, this combination is actually not that unusual nor bearish. In fact, since 1980 the SPX has had this combination 10 times ('89, '93, '94, '95, '97, '98, '99, '01, '05, '07, '08). The average return in those years has been +7.24%, and up 7 of 10 times. Therefore while the declines on Wednesday and today are perhaps surprising, they are not unusual nor particularly bearish from a historical context."
Finally, EURUSD clung desparately to 1.2000 all afternoon... The Euro broke down another 100 pips today on weak EU data and even more jawboning from Draghi. EURUSD has not seen a 1.19 handle since June 2010 (very briefly) when it was considered a signal of total EU collapse. Since Draghi really began jawboning ECB sovereign QE early in 2014, EURUSD is a stunning 20 handles lower!!
EURUSD drops to 1.2002 at its lows...
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It's perhaps worth noting that while the Euro has collapsed against the USDollar... it is perfectly unchanged from a year ago against the JPY...
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So... both European and Japanese currencies have collapsed at the same pace of the past year.. and so have bond yields...
[17]
Charts: Bloomberg