UPDATE 3: With over 96% of precincts reporting, it looks like Syriza will end up with 149 seat in Parliament, just 2 shy of an absolute majority, although already several of the parties that are entering parliament have vocied their intention to allign with Syriza, so it will hardly be a significant hindrance to Tsipras to conduct whatever anti-Troika policy he wishes.
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UPDATE 2:
Official results @ 50% of votes
SYRIZA 35.9
ND 28.3
G Dawn 6.4
Potami 5.8
KKE 5.4
PASOK 4.8
Ind Greeks 4.7
Kinima 2.5
#Greece [4]
#ekloges2015 [5]
— MacroPolis (@MacroPolis_gr) January 25, 2015 [6]
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UPDATE: Greek Government official admits electoral defeat by Syriza
As AP reports,
A senior official in Greece's governing conservatives has conceded defeat to the radical left Syriza party in Sunday's national elections.
"We lost," Health Minister Makis Voridis told private Mega TV. "The extent of that result is not yet clear."
Voridis, the conservative party's parliamentary spokesman, says the government's austerity policies, implemented to secure vital international bailouts, "make sense" but were cut short before they could bear fruit.
An exit poll on state Nerit TV projects Syriza winning by a wide margin.
* * *
The first Greek exit polls are out and here they are:
According to the initial exit polls, in first place, with some 35.5%-39.5% of the vote is Syriza, a huge lead over the second placing New Democracy which has 23-27% of the vote - far more than polls had indicated previously - and a spot which essentially assures Tsipras' party an absolute majority in parliament and the ability to take as hardline an approach as he wishes.
The other parties:
- Golden Dawn nationalists: 6.4-8.0%
- The new party, To Potami, also with : 6.4-8.0%
- Venizelos' socialist Pasok: 4.2%-5.2%
- KKE: 4.7%-5.7%
- Independent Greeks: 3.5%-4.5%
- Knima: 2.2%-3.2%: probably not enough to pass the 3.0% threshold
How the parliament breakdown would look like with these numbers: SYRIZA has a 12.5 percentage point lead over New Democracy and is expected to get between 146 and 158 seats in Parliament, according to the exit polls.
- SYRIZA 152 (146-158)
- ND 70 ( 65- 75)
- Golden Dawn 19.5 ( 17- 22)
- POTAMI 19.5 ( 17- 22)
- KKE 14.5 ( 13- 16)
- PASOK 13.5 ( 12- 15)
- ANEL 11.5 ( 10- 13)
- KINIMA ( 0- 8)
A second take on what Greek parliament would look like also gives Syriza an almost certain majority:
Kapa Research projection of MPs: SYRIZA 148-154; ND 70-78; GD 16-20; Potami 16-19 #greece [7] #ekloges2015 [5]
— Kathimerini English (@ekathimerini) January 25, 2015 [8]
A quick observation:
Greek exit polls: Extraordonarily, neo-nazi Golden Dawn could end up with more seats than Pasok (who won 44% of votes in 2009 election)
— Mats Persson (@matsJpersson) January 25, 2015 [9]
In short: if nothing changes drastically from here, a blowout victory for Syriza is essentially assured, one which gives it an absolute majority.
For those who wish to follow the data in real time from the ground, here are several live webcasts:
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