Following November's across the board ugliness in Durable Goods data [3], the hockey-stick extrapolators all positioned for the bounce back... Only 1 of 57 economists expected a negative print! But the actual data was a total disaster. Against expectations of a 0.3% rise (following last month's 0.7% drop), December printed down 3.4% and November was revised drasticaly lower to down 2.1%. This is the lowest durable goods ex-transports since March.
The breakdown:
- Durables: -3.4%, Exp. +0.3%, Last revised from -0.7% to -2.1%
- Durables ex transports: -0.8%, Exp. +0.6%, Last revised from -0.4% to -1.3%
- Core Cap Goods Orders: -0.6, Exp. 0.9%, Last revised from 0.0% to -0.6%
- Core Cap Goods Shipments: -0.2%, Exp. 1.0%, Last revised from 0.2% to -0.5%
And the ugliness in charts:
[4]
and Uglier.
[5]
And ugliest: on a Y/Y basis, November durable goods were revised to negative - usually a harbinger of a recession.
[6]
Charts: Bloomberg
