As noted earlier [8], the key macro event on today's calendar, and one which will likely be the origin of significant volatility, is the Eurogroup meeting to decide Greece's fate starting in a few hours where Yanis Varoufakis and his European Finance Minister peers will attempt to resolve two diametrically opposite and seemingly uncompromisable positions. Here is what to expect courtesy of RanSquawk [9].
Greek FM to meet with leaders of the Eurogroup and discuss options for filling their financing gap
Greece expected to propose a bridge loan and reject an extension of their current bailout. Leaders to arrive from 1530GMT
TODAY'S TIMELINE
- 1530GMT - All arrivals & doorsteps
- 1730GMT - Roundtable
- 1900GMT - Press Conference
LONGER TIMELINE
- End of Feb 2015 - Greece's EUR 172bln bailout is due to conclude
- March - EUR 1.4bln payment is due from Greece to the IMF
- 14th July 2015 - EUR 11.5bln Greek bond redemption due
RECENT COMMENTS
Overnight Greek PM Tsipras said that Greece is to negotiate a loan agreement and not a bailout adding they will not ask for an extension to the bailout or further austerity measures, no matter how much Germany asks.
OPTIONS
- A credit line - Greece would have to apply for an Enhanced Conditions Credit Line (ECCL) from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
- Issue short-term T-Bills - Under the current bailout the ECB imposed a cap on the volume of issuance from Greece which means the country must not raise more than EUR 15bln. The Greek finance minister proposed to the EU last week raising EUR 10bln through T-Bills as bridge financing and proposed raising the EUR 15bln ceiling to EUR 25bln however this has since been rejected by EU officials.
- Debt swap - Greece have previously stated that they would request a menu of debt swaps and two new bonds; 1. Indexed linked bond to nominal economic growth which would replace the bailout loans, 2. Perpetual bonds which would replace Greek bonds owned by the ECB.
- Bailout extension - This option is the one favoured by Germany but rejected by Greece as a bailout extension would come with conditions, namely further austerity for Greece. The new Greek government is extremely opposed to austerity imposed by the EU and are unlikely to support this option
