Earlier today the NY Fed released its quarterly, household credit report which is really just an Equifax spreadsheet where the links are hard-coded. We know this because about 8 months ago, the NY Fed intern (since seasonally-adjusted into pink-slip territory), released a #Reffing! spreadsheet [7]that didn't even bother to remove the hard-links to said Equifax report.
[8]
So what did the latest data reveal? Well, in the final quarter of the year, total household debt supposedly rose by $117 billion, an increase of 1%. Some of the debt breakdown details. Pay attention to the deterioration in both student and car loan delinquency rates:
Housing Debt
- Originations, which we measure as appearances of new mortgage balances on consumer credit reports and which includes refinanced mortgages, increased slightly, to $355 billion, but remain low by historical standards.
- About 122,000 individuals had a new foreclosure notation added to their credit reports between October 1 and December 31.
- Mortgage delinquencies improved, with the share of mortgage balances 90 or more days delinquent decreasing slightly; 3.1% of mortgage balances were 90+ days delinquent during 2014Q4, compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter.
Student Loans, Credit Cards, and Auto Loans
- Outstanding student loan balances reported on credit reports increased to $1.16 trillion (+$31 billion) as of December 31, 2014, representing about $77 billion increase from one year ago.
- Student loan delinquency rates worsened in the 4th quarter. About 11.3% of aggregate student loan debt is 90+ days delinquent or in default in 2014Q4, up from 11.1% in the third quarter.
- Auto loan delinquency rates worsened. The 90+ days delinquency rate is now at 3.5%, up from 3.1% in the previous quarter.
Credit Inquiries
- The number of credit inquiries within six months – an indicator of consumer credit demand – increased by 4 million from the previous quarter, to 175 million.
And here is the increase in Q4 debt visually:
Of course, considering the actual micro-level data which saw substantial declines in mortgage origination, expect the mortgage debt number to be revised lower even as total student and auto loan debt rises.
Which brings us to the money chart: total household debt creation since the Lehman crisis. It speaks for itself.
[9]
Source: NY Fed [10] [10]
