With Greece moving to the, ahem, periphery if only for a few days/hours, this week the US calendar returns to the forefront with Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow night and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, which the market will be paying very close attention to for the reconciliation of how the Fed plans to continue on its rate-hiking path despite rapidly deteriorating US macro data that has started 2015 at the worst pace (in terms of downside surprises) since Lehman.
For those who prefer visual summaries, here is the full weekly calendar from BofA:
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And for the verbal types, here is Deutsche Bank with the big picture summary:
- It’s a quiet start in Europe with just the February German IFO survey due whilst the ECB’s Mersch is also due to speak. In the US however this afternoon we’ve got the Chicago Fed national activity index, along with existing home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity print for February.
- Turning to Tuesday, the only notable release in the Asia timezone is small business confidence out of Japan. It’s a busier day in Europe tomorrow however. The final Q4 GDP report is due out of Germany along with the various trade data prints for the region. As well as this we’ve got the January inflation readings due out of the Euro-area with the market expecting a -0.6% yoy headline reading and +0.6% yoy core print.
- Focus on Tuesday in the US will be on Yellen’s semi-annual testimony speech (formerly Humphrey-Hawkins). Elsewhere in the US tomorrow will also see the S&P/Case-Shiller index, consumer confidence and also the Richmond Fed manufacturing print. We start Wednesday in China with the preliminary February manufacturing PMI print whilst in Europe we’ve just got French consumer confidence due.
- In the US on Wednesday we have the conclusion of the semi-annual monetary policy meeting as well new home sales data due.
- Thursday starts with consumer confidence and unemployment data in Germany, along with money supply data for the Euro-area. Later in the morning we also get GDP data in the UK along with confidence indicators for the Euro-area. Over in the US the main focus for the market will most likely be on the inflation print for the region with the market looking for a +1.6% yoy core print. As well as this, durable goods orders, capital goods order, initial jobless claims, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index and FHFA house price index are due – so plenty to keep an eye one.
- We round out the week in Japan with housing starts data whilst in Europe preliminary February inflation data for Germany will be of focus. The ECB’s Constancio is also due to speak. In the US we close out a busy week with the Q4 GDP reading as well as pending home sales and the University of Michigan index.
And here is Goldman with a breakdown between DMs and EMs:
In DMs, highlights of next week include US UMich. Confidence, GDP, Durable Goods, PCE, Consumer Confidence and CPI, GDP in Germany, Denmark, Spain, Sweden and the UK, CPI in Eurozone and Japan, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash) and Japan IP.
- [Monday] US Existing Home Sales.
- [Tuesday] US Consumer Confidence, Eurozone CPI, Germany GDP.
- [Wednesday] --.
- [Thursday] US CPI and Durable Goods, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash), Spain GDP.
- [Friday] US UMich. Confidence, GDP and PCE, GDP in Denmark, Sweden and the UK, CPI in Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan, Japan IP.
In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decisions in Israel, Hungary and Turkey, GDP in Hong Kong, Czech Republic, Poland and South Africa, Argentina Economic Activity, Argentina IP and Brazil Inflation.
- [Monday] Israel MP Decision.
- [Tuesday] MP Decisions in Hungary and Turkey, South Africa GDP.
- [Wednesday] China Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong GDP.
- [Thursday] Argentina IP and Brazil Inflation.
- [Friday] GDP in Czech Republic and Poland, Argentina Economic Activity.
