Worst. Case. Scenario. Markit US Services (flash) PMI printed an impressive 57.0 (smashing 54.5 expectations), well up from January's 54.2 as combined with the Manufacturing (soft survey data) suggests, according to Markit, that GDP is growuing around 3.0% annualised. Of course both these 'surveys' print positive amid one of the biggest declines and series of misses in US macro data of the last few years. As Markit notes, “The Fed will no doubt be encouraged by the resilience of the economy...and increasingly minded to start the process of normalising monetary policy in June."
Surge...
[5]
As Markit reports,
“Stronger growth of service sector activity in February puts a June Fed rate rise firmly back on the table.
“While parts of the East coast have struggled in the face of adverse weather, other regions basked in unusually warm temperatures, boosting business above seasonal norms. Activity levels surged higher and inflows of new business boomed as a result.
“Alongside the upturn signalled by the sister ‘flash manufacturing PMI survey, the improved performance of the service sector in February means the economy looks to be enjoying yet another spell of robust growth in the first quarter.
The two PMI surveys are so far running at a level consistent with at least 3.0% annualised GDP growth. While the overall rate of business expansion has cooled from the surging pace seen in the middle of last year, growth remains buoyant and, importantly, strong enough to drive yet another month of impressive job creation.
“The Fed will no doubt be encouraged by the resilience of the economy in the face of global headwinds such as the Greek and Russian crises, and increasingly minded to start the process of normalising monetary policy in June
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Which is odd given the total carnage in US macro data in Feb...
US macro at 11-month lows... (note that the data cliff-dives at end Sept 2014 - which corresponds with the government's fiscal-year-end)
[6]
February...
MISS
- Personal Spending
- Construction Spending
- ISM New York
- Factory Orders
- Ward's Domestic Vehicle Sales
- ADP Employment
- Challenger Job Cuts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Nonfarm Productivity
- Trade Balance
- Unemployment Rate
- Labor Market Conditions Index
- NFIB Small Business Optimism
- Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale Sales
- IBD Economic Optimism
- Mortgage Apps
- Retail Sales
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
- Business Inventories
- UMich Consumer Sentiment
- Empire Manufacturing
- NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- PPI
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
- Manufacturing Production
- Dallas Fed
- Existing Home Sales
BEAT
- Personal Income
- Markit Services PMI
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- JOLTS
* * *
