Despite proclamations that "the shadow of crisis has passed," November durable goods orders were weak [2], December durable goods orders were weaker [3], and while January's noisy headline Durable Goods Orders beat expectations (+2.8% vs +1.6% exp), ex-Transportation it missed (printing +0.3% vs +0.5% exp.). A quick glance at YoY core capex and it is clear that the crisis has anything but passed. Capital Goods shipments fell a greater than expected 0.3% (against expectations of a 0.2% rise) for the sixth miss in a row and 3rd drop in the last 4 months.
Does this look like the crisis has passed?
[4]
And the rest of the data hardly seems like it is screaming record highs for stocks...
[5]
Ex-Transports rolling back over...
[6]
And Core Capex flat...
[7]
Perhaps - if the shadow of crisis has passed, then that means the crisis is coming next?
Charts: Bloomberg
