While every other word from talking-heads and policy-makers relates various anecdotes (or simple lies) about US economic growth, The Atlanta Fed appears to have taken a 'data-dependent' perspective on the real economy (as opposed to smoke and mirrors). Based on their GDPNow "nowcasting" model [5], The Atlanta Fed projects Q1 2015 GDP growth os just 1.2% (less than half current sell-side economist consensus) and getting weaker...
As The Atlanta Fed explains... [5]
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our new GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release.
[6]
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 2, down from 1.7 percent on February 26. The nowcasts for first-quarter real residential and nonresidential structures investment and for real state and local government spending all declined following this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
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This forecast from The Atlanta Fed is less than half consensus... and not even we were bearish enouogh....
January Construction spending -1.1%, Exp. +0.3%. Q1 GDP < 2% on this
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 2, 2015 [7]
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Of course, none of this matters for stocks...
[8]
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As it appears, just as we noted previously - thanks to Jim Bullard, [9]that stocks believe there will be no rate hike and Fed exuberance will continue Japan-like for years/decades to come.
