Another day, another missed data point. ADP Employment data shows 212k jobs added in February, which modestly missed expectations of 219k and is the weakest monthly gain in 6 months. This despite a strong prior revision, pushing the January number up from 213K to 250K to catch up to the BLS runrate. Despite the miss, that showed large businesses adding by far the fewest jobs, Mark Zandi as usual remains optimistic: "jobs growth is strong but slowing," and expects the economy "will return to full employment by mid-2016."
Another miss...
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The breakdown:
More irrelevant, goalseeked charts:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
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Zandi explains:
"While February’s job gains came in slightly lower than recent months, the trend of solid growth above 200,000 jobs per month continued,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “What is also encouraging is that job gains are broad-based across all key industries.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but slowing from the torrid pace of recent months. Job gains remain broad-based, although the collapse in oil prices has begun to weigh on energy-related employment. At the current pace of growth, the economy will return to full employment by mid-2016.”
Finally, the truly value-added ADP infographic:
Meanwhile, the 90% data miss rate since Feb continues.
