Well, a June rate hike it is, because despite all the talking down of the February NFP number which was supposed to be whacked due to snow, it just came out and it is a doozy at +295K, smashing expectations of 235K, and above the January 239K (revised lower from 239K). The household survey showed a weaker gain of only 96K, however this follows the whopping 759K addition in January.
The unemployment rate came in lower than expected as well, printing at 5.5%, versus the 5.6% expected and down from 5.7% last month, as a result of the participation rate dropping again from 62.9% to 62.8%.
But the number everyone was looking at this month, the change in average hourly earning, came in at 0.1%, once again missing expectations of 0.2%, and sliding from 0.5%. So much for winter storms boosting wages as Goldman speculated.
As the chart below showing average hourly earnings shows, the January surge in wages was a fluke, and the number rose by a tiny 3 cents in February to $25.78, an increase of just 2.0%, and far below the Fed's target of 4.0%
[3]
More from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 295,000 in February, compared with an average monthly gain of 266,000 over the prior 12 months. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, construction, health care, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in mining declined over the month. (See table B-1.)
In February, food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs. The industry had added an average of 35,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
Employment in professional and business services increased by 51,000 in February and has risen by 660,000 over the year. In February, employment continued to trend up in management and technical consulting services (+7,000), computer systems design and related services (+5,000), and architectural and engineering services (+5,000).
Construction added 29,000 jobs in February. Employment in specialty trade contractors rose by 27,000, mostly in the residential component. Over the past 12 months, construction has added 321,000 jobs.
In February, employment in health care rose by 24,000, with gains in ambulatory care services (+20,000) and hospitals (+9,000). Health care had added an average of 29,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
Transportation and warehousing added 19,000 jobs in February, with most of the gain occurring in couriers and messengers (+12,000). Employment in transportationand warehousing grew by an average of 14,000 per month over the prior 12 months.
Employment in retail trade continued to trend up in February (+32,000) and has grown by 319,000 over the year.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in February (+8,000). Within the industry, petroleum and coal products lost 6,000 jobs, largely due to a strike.
Employment in mining decreased by 9,000 in February, with most of the decline in support activities for mining (-7,000).
Employment in other major industries, including wholesale trade, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change over the month.
