Key Global Events In The Coming Week

While today's macro calendar is empty with no central bank speakers or economic news (just the monthly budget (deficit) statement this afternoon), it’s a fairly busy calendar for us to look forward to this week as earnings season kicks up a gear in the US as mentioned while Greece headlines and the G20 finance ministers meeting on Thursday mark the non-data related highlights.

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The calendar starts off on the slower side this morning however with just Italian industrial production due in Europe and no releases scheduled for the US.

It’s a different story on Tuesday headlined by the UK CPI/PPI/RPI readings for March where the market is expecting the headline inflation reading to stay at 0.0% yoy. Inflation data out of Italy is also due while industrial production for the Euro-area is scheduled. In the US, March retail sales are the highlight while PPI, NFIB small business optimism survey and business inventories are all expected.

We start in China on Wednesday where retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets and most importantly Q1 GDP are all expected. In Japan industrial production and capacity utilization are expected. Inflation data will be the highlight in the European timezone with the final March CPI reading for Germany due as well as the preliminary number in France. The ECB meeting is also due to take place as well as the February trade data for the region. In the US on Wednesday we’ve got industrial production, empire manufacturing, capacity utilization, manufacturing production, NAHB housing market index and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book all due.

There is little in way of data in the Asia or Europe timezones on Thursday, however in the US we’ve got housing starts, building permits, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook all due. We round off the week on Friday in Europe with the final March CPI reading for the Euro-area as well as employment indicators out of the UK. Inflation data will be the highlight over the in the US meanwhile with market consensus for a +0.1% yoy core. Average weekly earnings, leading index and University of Michigan consumer sentiment print round off the week’s prints. Fedspeak wise, we’ve got Kocherlakota, Bullard, Fischer, Lacker, Lockhart, Mester and Rosengren all due to speak.

As SocGen recaps, in the US, a strong rebound in hard-data for March and regional manufacturing surveys for April is expected after the weather-related weakness in the Winter months. As a reminder, we showed previously [53]that the only way this winter was notable is because itwas hotter than normal in 3 of the past 4 months, but don't let reality get in the way of a scapegoating narrative.

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Bank of America then went on to say that "the early Easter holiday might have sent people shopping in late March."

So will the Easter Bunny prove stronger than Frosty the Snowman when it comes to US GDP? We will know tomorrow.

In Europe, negotiations with Greece will continue as the Greek government needs to send an updated reform list by the end of the week. While a deal at the 24th April Eurogroup meeting is possible, risks of failure are non-negligible. At what should be an unusually uneventful ECB meeting, President Draghi is set to keep a dovish tone and discard talks of early QE tapering. Finally, in China, a further slowdown in GDP growth (to 7% in Q1) is expected – strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

Last but not least, DB reminds us that Q1 US reporting starts to build up some momentum this week with 35 of the S&P 500 companies reporting (or 14% of the market cap). Obviously over the full season the big talking point will be how much the dollar is impacting results and whether we'll get an earnings recession. In fact, FactSet analysis has so far shown that of the 24 companies to have reported so far in the S&P 500, 16 have cited some sort of negative impact or sentiment towards the strong Dollar in their Q1 earnings transcripts so far. However some big banks (JP Morgan and Wells Fargo on Tuesday, Bank of America on Wednesday, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs on Thursday) report this week and these might out-perform given supportive financial market conditions so far in 2015.

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A detailed breakdown of the week's events from Goldman:

In DMs, highlights of next week include US Philly Fed, CPI, UMichigan Confidence and Retail Sales; MP Decisions in Eurozone, Canada and Singapore; Japan Machine Orders, Consumer Confidence and Minutes; Eurozone CPI.

[Monday] Japan Machine Orders and Minutes.
[Tuesday] US Retail Sales; Eurozone IP; CPI in Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK; Singapore GDP and MP Decision.
[Wednesday] MP Decision in Canada and the Eurozone; CPI in France and Germany.
[Thursday] US Philly Fed.
[Friday] US CPI and UMichigan Confidence, Eurozone CPI, Japan Consumer Confidence.

In EMs, highlights of next week include China Trade Balance, GDP and IP; MP Decisions in Indonesia, Poland and Chile.

[Monday] China Trade Balance.
[Tuesday] Indonesia MP Decision.
[Wednesday] China GDP and IP; Poland MP Decision.
[Thursday] Chile MP Decision.
[Friday] Inflation in Argentina and Brazil.

FULL CALENDAR

Monday, April 13

Events: Speech by BoJ’s Kuroda.

Italy | Industrial Production MoM (Feb): Previous -0.70% (-5.20% yoy nsa)
Japan | [MAP 3] Machine Orders MoM (Feb): GS -1.5%, previous -1.70%
Japan | Minutes from MP Decision
China | Trade Balance (Mar): GS $16.1B, consensus $40.55B, previous $60.62B
China | [MAP 3] Exports YoY (Mar): GS 0.0%, consensus 10.00%, previous 48.30%
China | [MAP 3] Imports YoY (Mar): GS -5.0%, consensus -10.50%, previous -20.50%
India | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 5.3%, previous 5.37%
Also interesting: [DM] France CA; Japan Money Stock and PPI [EM] CA in Czech Republic and Poland; Mexico ANTAD Same-Store Sales.

Tuesday, April 14

Events: Speeches by IMF’s Blanchard and Brazil Central Bank’s Tombini, IMF releases World Economic Outlook.

United States | [MAP 4] Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (Mar): GS 0.8%, consensus 0.70%, previous -0.10%
United States | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (Mar): GS 0.8%, previous -0.20%
Eurozone | [MAP 5] Industrial Production SA MoM (Feb): Previous -0.10% (1.20% yoy)
Italy | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Mar F): Previous -0.10%
Spain | CPI EU Harmonised YoY (Mar F): Previous -0.70% (0.10% mom)
Sweden | CPI YoY (Mar): Previous 0.10% (0.70% mom)
United Kingdom | CPI YoY (Mar): Previous 0.00% (0.30% mom)
Singapore | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q A): GS 2.0% (0.5% qoq sa), consensus 1.70% (0.10% qoq), previous 2.10% (4.90% qoq)
Singapore | MP Decision: We expect the MAS to re-center the midpoint of the SGD NEER trading band in its upcoming bi-annual meeting to what is now the bottom of the band.
Indonesia | MP Decision: We expect the BI to keep the policy rate on hold at its upcoming meeting. The economic data released since the last meeting on March 17 indicate that economic activity remains weak, including the consumer confidence index that dropped by 2.6% mom s.a. in March from +0.4% mom s.a. in February and +4.1% mom s.a. in January.
Also interesting: [DM] US NFIB Small Business Optimism and PPI; UK RPI and ONS House Price; Australia NAB Business Conditions [EM] Brazil Retail Sales

Wednesday, April 15

Events: Speeches by Fed’s Bullard and BoJ’s Kuroda, U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book, IMF Global Financial Stability Report.

United States | [MAP 2] Empire Manufacturing (Apr): Consensus 6, previous 6.9
United States | [MAP 2] Industrial Production MoM (Mar): GS -0.40%, consensus -0.20%, previous 0.10%
United States | [MAP 1] NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr): Consensus 55, previous 53
United States | Capacity Utilization (Mar): GS 78.5%, consensus 78.70%, previous 78.90%
Canada | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold but for the BoC to emphasize downside risks to growth.
Eurozone | MP Decision
France | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Mar): Previous -0.30% (0.70% mom)
Germany | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (Mar F): Previous 0.10% (0.50% mom)
Japan | Industrial Production MoM (Feb F): Previous -3.40% (-2.60% yoy)
China | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q): GS 7.2%, consensus 7.00%, previous 7.30% (1.50% qoq)
China | [MAP 1] Retail Sales YoY (Mar): GS 10.7%, consensus 10.90%, previous 10.7%
China | Industrial Production YoY (Mar): GS 6.9%, consensus 7.00%, previous 6.8%
India | Wholesale Prices YoY (Mar): Previous -2.06%
Israel | CPI YoY (Mar): GS -0.9%, consensus -0.80% (0.40% mom), previous -1.00% (-0.70% mom)
Poland | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold, in line with consensus. We also think the MPC will maintain the current policy guidance and repeat that the 50bp cut in March ended this easing cycle. We expect the MPC to remain on hold until 2016H2, against forward markets which have recently started to price in additional small easing in 2015.
Poland | CPI YoY (Mar): GS -1.1%, consensus -1.40% (0.30% mom), previous -1.60% (-0.10% mom)
Brazil | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Feb): GS (-0.6% mom), previous -1.75% (-0.11% mom)
Peru | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Feb): GS 2.0%, previous 1.70%
Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications and Total Net TIC Flows; Canada Existing Home Sales; Trade Balance in Eurozone and Norway; Japan Capacity Utilization; Australia Westpac Consumer Conf; Singapore Retail Sales [EM] Indonesia Trade Balance; Philippines Overseas Remittances; Unemployment in South Korea, Turkey and Peru.

Thursday, April 16

Events: Speeches by Fed’s Fischer and Constancio, ECB’s Praet, World Bank’s Kim and IMF’s Lagarde.

United States | [MAP 4] Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Apr): GS 5, consensus 5, previous 5
United States | Housing Starts MoM (Mar): GS 18.0%, consensus 15.90%, previous -17.00%
Israel | GDP Annualized (4Q F): Previous 6.80%
Nigeria | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 8.4%, consensus 8.60%, previous 8.40%
Chile | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Overnight Rate Target at 3.00%, in line with consensus) and for the MPC to reiterate a broadly neutral bias going forward. We expect the MPC to preserve the gist of the previous forward guidance by stressing that “future changes to the policy rate will depend on the implications of domestic and external macroeconomic conditions for the inflation outlook.”
Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims and Building Permits; Italy Trade Balance; Australia Unemployment; New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements, BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI, and ANZ Consumer Confidence [EM] Colombia Consumer Confidence.

Friday, April 17

Events: --.

United States | CPI YoY (Mar): GS 0.3%, consensus 0.10% (0.30% mom), previous 0.00% (0.20% mom)
United States | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Mar): GS (0.19% mom), consensus 1.70% (0.20% mom), previous 1.70% (0.20% mom)
United States | [MAP 1] U. of Mich. Sentiment (Apr P): GS 93.4, consensus 93.7, previous 93
Canada | CPI YoY (Mar): Consensus 1.00%, previous 1.00% (0.20% mom sa)
Eurozone | CPI YoY (Mar F): Previous (0.60% mom)
United Kingdom | [MAP 4] ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (Feb): Previous 5.70%
Japan | [MAP 4] Consumer Confidence Index (Mar): GS 41.5, previous 40.7
Argentina | National Urban CPI MoM (Mar): GS 0.9% (16.0% yoy), previous 0.90%
Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY (Apr): GS 7.70% (0.65% mom), previous 7.90% (1.24% mom)
Also interesting: [DM] US Leading Index; Canada Retail Sales; Eurozone CA; UK Claimant Count Rate and Jobless Claims Change; Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports [EM] Hong Kong Composite Interest Rate; Russia Retail Sales and Unemployment.

Source: DB, SocGen, BofA, Goldman