Having missed expectations for 5 of the last 7 months, Durable Goods New Orders jumped 4% MoM in March - the biggest jump since the July Boeing aberration all driven by a 112% surge in defense Aircraft new orders. Not surprisingly the Department of Commerce tried to pull this trick off in late 2007 in a last gasp desperate attempt to mask the arrival of the US recession then.
[5]
Durable Goods New Orders (ex-Transports) fell 0.2% MoM (missing expectations of a 0.3% rise) for the biggest YoY drop since 2012, some -1/9%, and under the covers it is ugly - Capital Goods New Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft have now fallen for 7 straight months, missing expectatons dramatically (-0.5% vs +0.3% exp.). These numbers have never fallen for this long a period without a recession.
Durable Goods New Orders Ex-Transports... never fallen for this long witghout a recession...
[6]
and Capitakl Goods New Orders Ex Defense/Aircraft dropped yet another month...
[7]
Meanwhile, one can now add core durable goods to factory orders, wholesale sales, export growth, credit rejection and control retail sales as declining year over year.
[8]
... oh, and core capital goods orders as well.
[9]
