Based on the most mainstream of mainstream overbought/oversold indicators (a 14-day RSI), the 30Y Treasury bond has not been this oversold since June 2007 - 9 years ago and a very memorable peak in yields.
As Kessler notes, [3] in that period, the 30yr peaked on June 12th, 2007 at 5.36% (30yr yields have been lower every day since then). Over the next month, the yield had fallen 16 basis points. Over the next 3 months, the yield had fallen 61 basis points, 6 months, 74 basis points. Finally, this big movement culminated in about a year and a half, as the yield had fallen 280 basis points to the financial crisis low of 2.55% on 12/18/2008.
Now, from the time the RSI first showed an oversold reading as strong as today's (6/7/2007), rates rose over the ensuing 4 days another 16 basis points to the ultimate peak. With this in mind, we don't assert that today is the yield peak of the recent sell off (it could be), but rather that this selloff has moved so far so fast that its rarity ranks with periods that ended up being very profitable for owners of US Treasuries.
Charts: Bloomberg
