Earlier we detailed reports that The IMF was preparing a contingency plan in the event of a Greek default, [10] and furthermore that Andrea Merkel was under increasing pressure to "let Greece go," [11] and now, as Eurogroup ministers begin to gather for today's crucial 'deal-or-no-deal' meeting, Die Welt reports [12]The Troika has 4 scenarios [12] for Greece - one positive and three increasingly negative ranging from the need for further bailouts to paying staff in IOUs and issuing a parallel currency.
While Austria's Hans Jorg Schelling sticks to his statement that:
"There's nothing to it The Plan B was not discussed.."
It appears, yet again, another European elite was lying (because it was important), as now, as Die Welt reports (via Google Translate) [12], hope is fading fast for a deal...
Shortly before the meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels an agreement of Greece's creditors is obviously further out of reach,with the danger of national bankruptcy looming.
Although the new negotiator from Athens is more "human pleasant" than the former team including the Greek Finance Minister Yannis Varoufakis said one of the negotiators of the creditors, "in terms of content but does not go ahead."
And as Bloomberg headlines suggest, all is not well...
- *TROIKA GREEK PLANS INCL 1 POSITIVE, 3 NEGATIVE SCENARIOS: WELT
- *ONE TROIKA SCENATIO INCLUDES GREECE PAYING STAFF IN IOUS: WELT
- *WELT NEWSPAPER CITES PARTICIPANT IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH GREECE
And here is Die Welt explaining the scenarios (via HuffPo)... [13]
Only one of four scenarios expects a success of the talks
One of the negotiators said the "world": "The Greeks have just passed a law called 'democratization of the public service', which decides on the reinstatement of 13,000 civil servants." This is clearly against the spirit of reform agreements with the troika of the IMF, European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission.
Given the difficult situation planning IMF, European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Commission with a positive and three negative scenarios, told the daily newspaper of negotiation circles.
Only the Positive provides that Greece complies with all its obligations, so that Athens receives money until the end of the second auxiliary program.
"Almost all of Greece would be poorer than they are today"
The three other scenarios currently being discussed are negative from the perspective of all negotiators in gradations.
Scenario 1 assumes that a reform-minded government actually presents substantial proposals today, but the Greeks have thereby overestimated their financial reserves. The most important prerequisite for possible assistance to the ECB: "The Greeks really show good faith at the negotiating table," it says in Brussels.
Scenario 2 assumes that half-hearted proposals the Greeks will not be accepted. Sometime during the next few weeks, Greece will be the debt with the IMF and the ECB can no longer pay off. If the Greek Government then willingly shows the further course of the crisis, when it quickly closes reform agreements with the Europeans and then turns on its debt, the whole thing could not get a grip, so the scenario of the Troika experts.
In Scenario 3, the troika of a completely uncooperative Greek government estimates. She begins to pay its employees and retirees in government IOUs known as IOUs, the beginning of the introduction of a parallel currency.
...
Three, four very hard years could come to Greece, puts it in Brussels. And almost all in Greece would then poorer than they are today.
Also in the CDU is now open talk about the "Plan B": Compared with "image" said the CDU chairman in the Bundestag Budget Committee, Norbert Brackmann: "Of course, we play the various alternatives for Greece by. For this purpose a part, Grexit 'as well as a third aid package. "
"Plan B" assumes more and more shape.
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As we noted previuously, The Greeks have already drawn up the "New Drachma" notes... just in case... [14]
As News247 reported in 2013, [14]the
6 banknotes (designed by Paul Vatikioti) of 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 and
10,000 drachmas have pictures of Cornelius Castoriadis, Odysseus
Elytis, Yiannis Moralis, Georgios Papanikolaou, Melina Mercouri and
Maria Callas...
[15]
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Good luck
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The result, for now, is some weakness in EURUSD - which we assume will be bid away gently as Europe opens to 'prove' that Grexit is nothing to worry about...
[21]
