Once upon a time, the Chicago PMI was the best advance indicator, printing usually some 24 hours in advance, to the ISM's Manufacturing "report on business" seasonally-adjusted survey. Unfortunately, in 2015 this has no longer been the case, with the Chicago manufacturing data tumbling into contraction territory for 3 of the past 4 months (most recently printing near 6 year lows [4]), even as the ISM data has printed consistently telegraphed improving seasonally-adjusted survey results [5] (coming in a time of -0.7% GDP growth).
Which makes one wonder: is the Chicago manufacturing snapshot no longer an accurate indication of what to expect from the US manufacturing sector, or, the real question, is one of these two data sets not not seasonally-adjusted enough. (that's of course rhetorical: everyone knows that it is the worse data that always needs more seasonal adjustments).
One more thing worth noting: the last time the Chicago PMI printed dramatically below its ISM cousin was in late 1999, early 2000, just ahead of an imminent recession.
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