While virtually every single word change from the June statement compared to the April document shows a Fed that is increasingly more confident in the economy, the reason why the dollar has encountered a sudden air pocket following the Fed release is not due to the statement but what is in the Fed's projection materials, where the Fed unambiguously cut its 2015 GDP central tendency forecast from 2.3%-2.7% in March to just 1.8%-2.0%, coupled with a pick up in the unemployment rate from 5.0%-5.2% to 5.2%-5.3%, suggesting quite implicitly that while on one hand the Fed is more optimistic, when it comes to quantitative metrics it just got that much more bearish.
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But nowhere is the Fed's ambivalence more evident than in the latest dot, or dart as we call them, plots of where every single FOMC member expects the Fed Funds rate at the end of 2015 and 2016. The wholesale drop in FF expectations, from 1.875% in March to 1.625% currently for 2016, is quite clear and suggests that while 15 people said it was time to hike rates in 2015 (vs 2 in 2016), their conviction is even lower than 3 months ago.
2015 dot plot:
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And 2016:
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And for those asking, here is the 2015 dot plot from June of 2014 compared to the latest one.
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