March's exulted bounce in Durable Goods faded rapidly into April's disappointing drop and today we see May disappoint further with a 1.8% drop (against expectations of a 0.1% drop) having missed 5 of the last 7 months. Revisions are big and negative... so that's not helping and has pushed Durable Goods Orders NSA down 5.0% YoY - the largest 10-month slump since Dec09... the last time we dropped this much, The Fed unleashed QE3. Durable Goods Ex Transports and Core Capex are also both down YoY for 4 months in a row, flashing recessionary red.
MoM - the bounce is dead...
[2]
Leaving YoY Durables Goods Orders weak
[3]
With the biggest 10-month slump since 2009...
[4]
With Core Durable Goods down YoY 4 months in a row...
Worse still Core Capex is down 4 months in a row also...
[5]
And the bottom line: durable Goods Inventories declined by the most since May 2013. Which means very bad news for Q2 GDP if indeed this flows through into the GDP calculation.
