As the shortened week continues ahead of tomorrow's payrolls print, and amid chaotic Greek headline-hockey, ADP and Challenger jobs data gives us a glimpse of what volatility lies ahead. After jumping a little last month, but remaining in weak territory, ADP printed 237k for June (beating expectations of +217.5k) in line with estimates for nonfarm payrolls. This is the best print since Dec 2014 but is dominated by small businesses with large companies lagging. Job gains were dominated by Services (+225k) with goods-producing fiorms gaining a mere 12k jobs. This comes after Challenger-Gray showed job cuts increasing 42.7% YoY in June and are at the highest level for June since 2009.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,
“The U.S. job machine remains in high gear. The current robust pace of job growth is double that needed to absorb the growth in the working age population. The only blemish in the job market is the loss of jobs in the energy sector. Most encouraging is the healthy rate of job growth among the nation’s smallest companies.”
Bounce back... good for the economy - bad for the market?
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More visual details:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
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Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
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Change By Selected Industry
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From the ADP report:
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 120,000 jobs in June, the same as May. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 86,000 jobs, up from 63,000 the previous month. Employment gains at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – increased from May, adding 32,000 jobs in June, up from 19,000. Companies with 500-999 employees bounced back to 27,000 jobs added after shedding 1,000 jobs in May. Companies with over 1,000 employees added 5,000 jobs, down from 21,000 the previous month.
Goods-producing employment rose by12,000 jobs in June, after adding 11,000 in May. The construction industry had another solid month in June adding 19,000 jobs, down from 28,000 last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 7,000 jobs in June, after losing 2,000 in May.
Service-providing employment rose by 225,000 jobs in June, a strong rise from 192,000 in May. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 61,000 jobs in June, almost double May’s 32,000. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 50,000, the same as the previous month. The 19,000 new jobs added in financial activities was an increase from last month’s 12,000.
The always "informative" ADP infographic:
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2015/June/NER/images/infographic/main... [5]" width="598" />
So that's all great news - more bartenders and waiters, but as Challenger-Gray reports,
Job cuts increased by about 10 percent in June, as employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 44,842 workers during the month. Meanwhile, heavier-than-expected downsizing throughout the first half of 2015 pushed the midyear total to its highest level since 2010, according to a report released Wednesday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
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This is also the highest June print since 2009
