On Monday, in “Beggar Thy Neighbor? Greece’s Battered Banks Beget Balkan Jitters, [12]” we took an in depth look at the potential for the Greek banking crisis to infect Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia, where Greek banks control a substantial percentage of total banking assets.
We noted that yields on the country’s bonds had spiked in the wake of capital controls in Greece and the ensuing ATM run, a reflection of souring investor sentiment despite assurances from local banking officials that there was no risk of similar measures being implemented outside of Greece.
“Any action by the Greek government and the central bank to impose measures in the Greek financial system have no legal force in Bulgaria and can in no way affect the smooth functioning and stability of the Bulgarian banking system," Bulgaria’s central bank said, in a statement.
Still, as Morgan Stanley pointed out nearly two months ago, “the risk is that depositors who have their money in Greek subsidiaries in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia could suffer a confidence crisis and seek to withdraw their deposits. Although well capitalised and liquid, Greek subsidiaries in the SEE region may see difficulties providing enough cash if withdrawals are intense and become problematic. In case of a liquidity shortage, Greek subsidiaries in Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia would probably create the need for local authorities to step in. Local central banks and governments would most probably provide additional liquidity, but if panic behaviour develops it would mean that certain banks would either have to find a buyer or be nationalised. In this case, the national deposit guarantee schemes will have to repay guaranteed deposits and, in case of insufficient funds, the government will have to provide them.”
Now, with Greece’s future in the EMU hanging in the balance, Bloomberg says the ECB has stepped up its efforts to shield Bulgaria from any fallout. Here’s more [13]:
The European Central Bank is set to extend a backstop facility to Bulgaria and is ready to assist other nations in the region to ward off contagion from Greece, according to people familiar with the situation.
The ECB would provide access to its refinancing operations, offering euros to the banking system against eligible collateral, the people said, asking to remain anonymous because the matter is confidential. The ECB and the Bulgarian central bank declined to comment.
Eastern Europe is at risk of tremors from Greece via ties ranging from trade to finance, with lenders from the debt-ridden country owning almost a third of banking assets in Bulgaria. The possibility of Greece abandoning the euro after shutting banks and imposing capital controls has left eastern European currencies among this week’s worst emerging-market performers.
“The threat of ‘Grexit’ has understandably cast a dark cloud over the outlook,” for the region, London-based Capital Economics said last week in a note. “Ties with Greece are sizable in a few places, including Bulgaria and Romania.”
Bulgaria and its banks have been a main focus of concern for European Union officials looking at potential fallout from the Greek crisis in the region, according to people familiar with their thinking. The yield on euro-denominated Bulgarian government debt due 2024 has jumped 25 basis points this week to 2.61 percent.
It certainly appears as though the whole "Greece is contained" line is yet another example of a vacuous attempt to calm a panicked public by issuing hollow assurances from on high and compelling the media to parrot them to the masses in order to obscure the real risks — a strategy which works until the soup line photos start showing up on social media.
