Two competing theories have emerged as to what effect the deaths of Michael Brown, Eric Garner, Walter Scott, and Freddie Gray have had on policing in America.
One theory, dubbed the “Ferguson Effect [3],” says that police officers are now more reluctant to use force to counter illegal activity for fear of prosecution or, more poignantly, for fear of finding themselves cast as the villain that catalyzes widespread civil unrest. This effect, some say, has led to a dramatic increase in violent crime throughout the country.
Others argue that the numbers simply do not support the idea that police have become “gun shy” so to speak. The Washington Post, for instance, cites data which shows that fatal police shootings have doubled [4] compared to historical trends, with law enforcement now killing more than two people every day in the US.
While it’s possible to debate which theory more closely approximates prevailing conditions across the country, what’s not up for debate is the fact that crime has spiked in Baltimore in the months since the riots.
Some attribute this to a dynamic similar to the Ferguson Effect, while some say it is the inevitable result of an increased supply of prescription painkillers which flooded the streets after pharmacies were looted during the city’s “purge,” but whatever the cause, Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has had enough. Here’s more from NBC [5]:
Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake replaced the city's police commissioner on Wednesday, saying the city needed to be more focused on suppressing a spike in violence in the months since the death of a man in police custody.
Rawlings-Blake said the police department under Commissioner Anthony Batts had become too preoccupied with internal politics and not enough with stemming a surge in shootings and killings.
"This was not an easy decision, but it is one that is in the best interest of Baltimore," the mayor said in a late afternoon news conference. "The people of Baltimore deserve better. The brave men and women of our department who put their lives on the line to make our cities deserve better."
Baltimore, historically one of America's most violent cities, has stumbled particularly hard, ending the first six months of the year with a 48 percent increase in homicides over the same period in 2014. That trend continued into July, with 10 killings in one week, including the shooting of three people Tuesday near the city's University of Maryland campus.
Since Gray's death, the relationship between police and the city's high-crime communities has suffered, making it harder for cops to patrol streets and investigate cases, officials say. Arrests have plummeted, sparking accusations of a deliberate police slowdown.
From April 19 to the end of June, there were 80 homicides in Baltimore, nearly double the 42 committed during the same period last year, according to an NBC News analysis of city crime data through the first half of the year. By comparison, there were 53 homicides during that period in 2013, 48 in 2012, and 45 in 2011.
The firing came a day after the police union that criticized Batts' leadership during the riots, and Batts' own announcement of an independent review of the riot response.
"It is clear that the focus has been too much on the leadership of the department and not enough on the crime fighting," the mayor said.
Rawlings-Blake introduced Deputy Police Commissioner Kevin Davis as his temporary replacement.
"This is a time of refocusing and re-energizing and going after the folks who are harming this community," Davis said.
The irony here, of course, is that if there's any truth at all to the "Ferguson effect" theory (and in Baltimore there probably is) law enforcement officials might be forgiven for being a bit confused as to what exactly it is they're supposed to be doing.
Obviously no one is saying that police officers should simply stop doing their jobs every time an instance of alleged misconduct serves to put law enforcement under a microscope. That said, something seems a bit odd about instructing police to stand down in the middle of a riot one day and then firing the police commissioner for being too passive barely two months later.
